We'll see what happens in two weeks. The race really has hit a lull two weeks out, not seen this before. Trump is, maybe, slowly gaining some ground. A poll has him up +2 in Florida (although another one had Clinton up +3) and gaining in New Hampshire being +4 ahead. The other polls seem stable. Nothing is changing. Still a number of undecided voters though and if nearly all of them went Trump it's neck-and-neck. Obviously that's very unlikely but if a signifiant number did then we would be within 'Brexit error' margins.
Otherwise boring.
I did hear something interesting the other day though. Every 4 years the number of minority voters in America take up 2% more of the electorate as a whole. It's why states like North Carolina went Obama and why it's a toss-up state now. At the same time we're seeing a Brexit like split between those without college-degrees and those with them. Normally there wasn't a big difference in American politics between these two groups (all other factors being the same obviously) but this election those without having 'bigly' to Trump whilst those with them are moving to Clinton. Finally we also have liberals moving down South and changing the demographics of some of those states, it's why Colorado is now a blue state and maybe Arizona soon (although that's also related to the first point).
So what would happen in 2020? Let's say Clinton does win. Who do the Republicans get to run and against her? Can they change to deal with the fact the electorate is changing or will their base prevent them from doing so?
---------- Post added at 21:24 ---------- Previous post was at 21:22 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem
Trump, like UKIP/Farage, is a symptom of what's gone wrong over decades and unless things change that anti-establishment sentiment will continue to grow and if Trump doesn't get in this time it'll be someone similar next time.
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I was writing my post as you were posting that but my last part asks this question too.
