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**Chris** · 25-10-2016, 18:46

Mick, in 2014 so much of the chat around the referendum here in Scotland was around Yessers insisting the polls were wrong based on the number of Yes placards they counted along the A82, or the number of people picketing the BBC or showing up for a rally in Glasgow.

None of this gives you a reliable indication of how people will actually vote. All it does is tell you whose activist base is more ... well ... active. The polls in Scotland were reasonably accurate in the end; if anything they over-estimated the insurgency slightly.

The polls in the USA will carry a margin of error, as ours do, but that margin is comfortably less than the distance between Trump and Clinton. There is no doubt, on any objective data, that Trump has a mountain to climb.

25-10-2016, 18:46	#480
Chris Trollsplatter Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: North of Watford Services: Humane elimination of all common Internet pests Posts: 38,229	Re: US Election 2016 Mick, in 2014 so much of the chat around the referendum here in Scotland was around Yessers insisting the polls were wrong based on the number of Yes placards they counted along the A82, or the number of people picketing the BBC or showing up for a rally in Glasgow. None of this gives you a reliable indication of how people will actually vote. All it does is tell you whose activist base is more ... well ... active. The polls in Scotland were reasonably accurate in the end; if anything they over-estimated the insurgency slightly. The polls in the USA will carry a margin of error, as ours do, but that margin is comfortably less than the distance between Trump and Clinton. There is no doubt, on any objective data, that Trump has a mountain to climb.