[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by pip08456

You keep pressing this 40% 10% argument ad nauseum.

We export about £220 billion in goods and sercives to the other 27 EU member states but import about £290 billion from them.

You speak of the EU as a whole yet there are EU states that import more form us than they export to us.

Conversly there are those who export more to us and who is the biggest one? Surprise, surprise it's that powerhouse of Europe Germany. Try telling them that they'll only lose 10% of their exports if a deal isn't done. Spain, Belgium, France, Italy and Poland are only a little behind.

That is 6 member states that have a lot to lose and it's nowhere near 10% of their GDP. So yes, if they don't want to deal then hey-ho bye bye.

I do mention them as a group because they are. All 27 member states have to agree to any deal with us, they all have veto.

You are correct when you mention that it's nowhere near 10% of their GDP, so thanks for making that point for me. We're about 7.5% of Germany's total exports, and while their consumption is somewhat low Germans actually do have a domestic economy. The £27 billion surplus they ran with us in trade in 2015 was less than 1.5% of their economy.

The £12 billion Spain ran in surplus about 1.5% of GDP. Belgium's surplus 2.5% of GDP, France's not even 1%.

Exports to us are 3-4% of EU-27s economy. Our exports to them are 12% of our economy. Their economy is considerably larger.

Germany are quite aware of the consequences and seem quite willing to take them, both politicians and trade bodies as they fear the longer term consequences would be far more harmful than a loss of some, it obviously wouldn't be all, trade.

Thankfully it looks like the government, behind the rhetoric, is more pragmatic.

But the claim was strongly denied by Mrs May’s allies. Several ministers told the Financial Times that a transitional trade deal was likely to be a key part of Brexit negotiations that begin next year.

One option being considered is that Britain might continue to pay into EU coffers as an entry fee to the single market during the interim period, pending agreement and ratification of a new trade deal.

We may actually end up running a bigger trade deficit with the EU when all is said and done - a trade deal is likely at least initially to include goods only, not services. We run a >£20 billion a year surplus with the EU on services.

---------- Post added at 21:59 ---------- Previous post was at 21:56 ----------

Originally Posted by Ramrod

The EU has no interest in reforming. That isn't in it's DNA. It simply can do that.
It's all or nothing.

It's a painfully bloated and slow beast, as is predictable with 27 member states all with their own agendas, but it looks as though some movement is happening. Overdue and well needed, too. They've kicked the can down the road to the point where the problems are existential.