Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
It is a mistake to compare polling methods in the UK with those in the USA. The data on registered voters goes right down to local polling districts in the US, thanks to the primary elections system. They can determine which way things are going with a far higher degree of confidence. If Clinton has a 10 point lead then quite apart from it being well outside the margin of error for a British poll, you can be confident that the lead is real.
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National polls weight against the census. I doubt they pull the registered voter records per district. I think state polls do go against the state's registered voters though.
I think what makes the US different, aside from their better polling, is also a much larger amount of minorities. This is what cost Romney 4 years ago and these groups hate Trump more. A poll came out with Trump at 1.5% among black people. He is falling even further with women too. His whole strategy seems to be to turn out white men to unprecedented levels and pray but even there support is dropping.
All the stuff he said is catching up with him.