Quote:
Originally Posted by RizzyKing
Well in fairness Ignition for most of the campaign you were saying the doom and gloom from remain wasn't very reliable and i believe you called more then a bit of it rubbish so you are the last one to be honest having a go at anyone.
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As I remember I said I thought the hyperbole of it all was absurd. I'm not sure I said that there would be no negative consequences in the shorter term, I think I was quite open in saying that there would be a period of uncertainty, but that the idea that forecasts could be made reliably 15 years into the future, that an emergency budget would be needed or that World War 3 would kick off was absurd.
I may be mistaken and can't be bothered to go back through the posts though. Keeping calm, carrying on and all that.
And now something a little lighter.
---------- Post added at 11:19 ---------- Previous post was at 11:09 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by RizzyKing
Predicting and planning is different to actual activity and given nothing has actually changed there is no practical reason for all the volatility unless we were entering a period of volatility and brexit is just a convenient excuse. I would have thought our voting to leave the EU was less cause for volatility then the perilous state of Mediterranean finances some of which could go into complete meltdown at some point this year. Maybe that is the real problem and cause and again brexit is the convenient excuse.
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The two issues, Brexit and the ongoing Eurozone problems, don't sit in a silo and aren't insulated, the impacts are cumulative.
I'm not sure how issues with finances of a group of countries that comprise perhaps a few % of our exports can be considered less of a cause for volatility than uncertainty over our trading relationship with a bloc that as a whole takes ~40% of our exports or the huge fluctuations in our currency.
Something has actually materially changed already - the weakening of Sterling is making imports more expensive and this is slowly but surely filtering through. Imports more expensive means lower buying power domestically, so lower domestic demand.
Pretty much as described by the BoE going forward. An increase in exports alongside lower domestic demand, and there is inevitably a delay while the economy tries to recalibrate to this.
It's not actually a bad thing overall, we were far too dependent on domestic consumption and were exporting too little. Bit messy during the transition though.
I am sure that if we make a strong success of the transition people will be delighted, as they should be. I will be. In the interim, of course, all of us need to accept the consequences of our vote, whichever way we voted.
Like Israel, I maintain a policy of ambiguity with regards to which way I voted on the day
