Here're the NIESR's thoughts.
http://www.niesr.ac.uk/media/niesr-p...ent-2017-12588
Basically something of a downturn, that will be mitigated heavily by interest rate cuts and QE.
Increased government borrowing to mitigate slower growth / possible recession.
Quite heavy risks on the downside.
TL;DR everything is not awesome, but neither is it apocalyptic.
Apologies for mentioning the views of experts. Please return to judging everything based on what a bloke down the pub says, and ensure that if it's negative it's nothing to do with Brexit.
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Heh. I just had a look at the Express's IQ-sapping propaganda and found their story on the NIESR report.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/696...EU-Theresa-May
Quote:
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BREXIT BOOST: Britain WILL NOT fall into recession after ditching EU, think tank reveals
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They couldn't even report the executive summary properly, let alone the report itself.
Here're the bullet points and first paragraph from the executive summary.
Quote:
GDP is expected to grow by 1.7 per cent in 2016, slowing to just 1 per cent in 2017. GDP is likely to decline by 0.2 per cent in the third quarter of this year and there is a risk of a further deterioration.
Inflation is forecast to increase significantly, peaking at just over 3 per cent at the end of 2017. The MPC is expected to ‘look through’ this temporary rise and ease monetary policy substantially in the coming months.
Government announcements have effectively ‘over-ridden’ the Fiscal Charter and borrowing is expected to increase by an additional £47 billion over the period 2016–17 to 2020–21.
Simon Kirby, Head of Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting at NIESR, said “We expect the UK to experience a marked economic slowdown in the second half of this year and throughout 2017. There is an evens chance of a ‘technical’ recession in the next 18 months, while there is an elevated risk of further deterioration in the near term. In light of the downturn underway and the downside risks to the outlook, a decision by the MPC to provide monetary stimulus would be welcome and we look forward to assessing the new Chancellor’s plans at the Autumn Statement.”
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Wonder if they'll manage to correct this one or if, like an earlier story, it'll end up being shown to be so full of bovine excreta they simply take it down?
Quote:
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Following the vote to leave the EU, we have seen heightened uncertainty and a depreciation of sterling. In the near term, we also expect a tightening of financial conditions and a spike in inflation. These factors will slow GDP growth from 1.7 per cent in 2016 to just 1 per cent in 2017. The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.8 per cent in the second quarter of this year to a peak of around 5¾ per cent in the middle of 2017.
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They call this a 'Brexit boost'? It's not end of times, we've had far worse and the economy will recover as it recalibrates, but it's hardly a bloody 'boost'. The Express seems to have gotten even more blatant about confirmation bias and, if anything, I'm getting the strong impression from their increasing desperation that they know they're in for a backlash. When you feed people the endless stream of propaganda they did anything that doesn't fit that narrative will upset people, even if it was entirely predictable.