Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
And now for Comres:
http://order-order.com/2016/06/14/co...lead-crumbles/
Remain 46
Leave 45
Which is not as comforting for Europhiles as you might think, as this time last month Comres had Remain 12 points ahead.
There's a clear direction of travel here, and it is early enough and substantial enough for Leave to have a small but solid lead by Thursday week. |
I mean that's a bit better for Remain. Conventionally logic suggests the change option needs to be far ahead by the vote as you said. And it's not a given that the direction is forever one way, if anything the imminent prospect of Leave would cause further attention to what will happen.
If it was only that poll I would be content. Obviously the other polls are terrible though plus I think they're underestimating the Labour Leave vote.
Anyway Osbourne is going high-stakes now:
Very risky.
I can see the logic. It's outlandish enough to draw attention back the economy and try to make it seem to people that there will be
personal ramifications in the event of Leave. Several pages ago I was saying that the underlying poll information says people think it will be fine, this will attempt to undermine that.
He will explain it away by saying £30 billion is what we'll lose right away, we need to pay for that. However people will hate it. It might work in the sense it will play on voters minds in the booth but it's going to damage him personally quite a bit IMO although I guess he has nothing to lose at this point.