Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien
If we leave aside our own biases and try to discuss this objectively what does everyone think the actual result will be and why?
As I said above I think that a combination of anti-establishment mood as well as a serious underestimation of the Leave vote in Northern Labour heartlands will win this for Leave. I can't explain why the polls aren't picking this up, and it may be apprehension talking, but the underlying questions in the polling are alarming for Remain. Only 1/3rd of the electorate think there will be any economic impact in Leaving for example whilst the vast majority think immigration will go down. 50% of Labour voters think Labour supports Leave. Most voters think EU immigration accounts for 15% of the population as opposed to 5%.
Essentially the Leave campaign is working. Despite the 50-50 in the polls most voters think Brexit will not hurt the economy but will reduce migration. If that's the case Remain is finished. Either the headline poll numbers are wrong or the underlying poll numbers are wrong. There is no way most voters think the economy will be fine but will vote to Remain anyway.
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I mentioned earlier, I have seen the result and it is 52.3% Remain*
Why is because of the clear risks involved. Most people are risk averse as the Scottish vote showed and so there will be a nervous "better the devil I know" micro-swing at the last minute ...
* with the ususal 10% margin of error