Quote:
Originally Posted by dave6x
Surprisingly many people I have spoken to covering a wide age range are all saying the same, that they are sick to death of scaremongering extreme forecasts based on dodgy statistics coming from the Remain campaign and thus are likely to vote leave because they would rather we were in charge of our own destiny as a nation than trust those who are telling us lies which even the all party Treasury Select Committee are questioning!
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People said the same during the Scottish Referendum. So many people said that they were No voters but the negativity of the Better Together campaign had turned them into Yes voters and I never really believed it. I don't think people act rebellious on voters they think matter.
Baring any extraordinary event I think the die is already cast for the result and would have been early on. There isn't a lot of evidence that campaigns shift too many voters with many being decided before the campaigns begin. I was reading a book about how the Tories won the last election and for the most part the internal polling they had back in October '14 matched the result they got in May '15.
The theory is that although polling does fluctuate in the campaign it tends to revert back to what the voters probably would have done before those campaigns begun. That the fundamental concerns of voters will win out in the end irrespective of what happens otherwise.