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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
The FT did an (imho) even handed article on Brexit in February, with some scenarios.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/70d0bfd8-d...#axzz46mPRJPBo
Quote:
Here, the FT looks at the case for three very different economic futures for a UK outside the EU: a Booming Britain, a Troubled Transition and a Disastrous Decision. The first envisages a vibrant economy unconstrained by Brussels red tape; the second foreshadows a period of turmoil and financial instability before the UK finds its way; the third portends an economy that suffers long-term damage...
Booming Britain
FT verdict
Today’s campaigns to leave the EU make for a striking contrast with the groups that opposed the common market in Britain’s 1975 referendum. In the 1970s the bloc’s opponents were fundamentally protectionist. In 2016, their rallying cry is freer trade outside the EU.
But assertions that Britain will be better able to foster trade with third countries once it has left the EU are not yet very credible. Nor is it likely that the country can maintain the same access to the European single market while cutting down on regulation and budgetary transfers.
Troubled Transition
FT verdict
The contention that trade is only one element in the long-run performance of economies is well-founded. But such an argument can easily be exaggerated, since trade is clearly an important element of prosperity. A difficult transition out of the EU would jeopardise Britain’s living standards.
Disastrous Decision
FT verdict
With clear and easily specified economic risks in the short and medium- term, Brexit does not easily pass any cost-benefit analysis. But supporters of the EU should be wary of making overconfident claims, since trade is only one driver of growth and prosperity.
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