Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Brian
Sorry I don't agree with this costing more for the simple reason that the EU nations will want to trade still and will not make it that difficult. We would return to the way it worked before we joined the Common Market. We traded well enough with them then so why not now? I see shades of what happened when Scotland and England united here. The English Banned Scotland from trading with the Colonies so we went bankrupt and had no choice. Nah can't see the EU doing that really.
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But the whole point is there is no guarantee. The UK accounts for around 8% of the rest of the EUs exports, but the EU accounts for 45% of our exports. But we rely on the EU for 55% of our imports. They have the strong negotiating hand but if they say yes, ok, we'll let you have free trade but in return for free movement (ala Switzerland and Norway) then what's the point in coming out? It is all about immigration after all isn't it this vote? And if they say, ok, we'll trade but there will be tariffs (as per most of the rest of their trade agreements but there are also restrictions on what they can trade) then prices will be going up. Even a 4% tariff added to the currency slide and it will have a big effect on inflation and our ability to trade.