Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456
EXPORTS:
Do you really think they will stop immediately with a Brexit vote. Yes the trade deal will be renegotiated but the Status Quo will still exist until that time. Germany cannot afford it not to,
IMPORTS
Germany would not to give up that trade but we will be free to negotiate not just with our Commonwealth countries without restriction but also with the rest of the world. Don't forget trade deals are a two way street. I'll buy off you if you buy off me.
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This is, as stated before, a gross oversimplification.
Trade deals are a two way street but they are not symmetrical. They can only apply to certain industries, they can allow access to a market for one of the countries but not the other, they can require regulations, they can require laws be passed as a requirement of the agreement and more besides. They are big complicated agreements which is why they can take several years to a decade to agree.
The deal with Canada-EU
excludes financial services and took
6 years to negotiate. It also required an overhaul of the
Canadian law when it comes to copyright.
These things are not '
I'll buy off you if you buy off me'. We're not playing Civilization here. I know I have said this time and time again on here but then time and time again people have characterized it as 'we'll get a trade deal because Germany sells us cars'.
It is a wildly optimistic scenario.
http://www.economist.com/news/britai...le-trade-winds
Quote:
As for the trade deficit, what matters is the share of exports: some 45% of British exports go to other EU countries, whereas only around 7% of their total exports come to Britain. It is true that German carmakers would want to sell to the British market. But several other countries run bilateral deficits with Britain or barely trade with it at all; a deal would not interest them.
The WTO option would not remove non-tariff barriers, nor even tariffs on many products, such as cars (which attract a levy of around 10%). The Canadian deal does not cover all goods. And both the WTO and Canadian options omit most services, including financial ones, which make up Britain’s biggest exports to the EU. Rival financial centres such as Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin would seize the chance to win back business following Brexit.
Hopes of easy trade deals with the rest of the world also look illusory. Lawyers say Britain would have to replace all the EU’s 53 free-trade pacts, which would be hard with tough negotiators like South Korea or Mexico. Several big countries, including America, China and India, are negotiating new deals with the EU, from which a post-Brexit Britain would be excluded.
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https://next.ft.com/content/aba86dce...b-5a6d4728f74e
Quote:
The campaign for Brexit should be commended for arguing for a free-trading independent Britain rather than a protectionist fortress. But it is deluding the electorate if it believes that a deal with the US — or indeed any other large economy — is there for the taking and can be concluded on advantageous terms to the junior partner.
Successive US administrations have been clear that, across a number of policy areas, they would prefer to deal with the UK inside rather than outside the EU. British voters should heed Mr Froman’s timely warning. Whatever benefits may be gained from the UK leaving the EU, a substantive transatlantic trade treaty is highly unlikely to be among them.
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