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Originally Posted by Osem
Under terms that are mutually acceptable. Anything else would be mutually harmful and illogical wouldn't it. If we're saying that there are many complex business links between UK and other EU countries why wouldn't it be in everyone's interests to work to limit the damage of any split on both sides and ensure all required negotiations are conducted as quickly as possible. If barriers are imposed against the UK then clearly the UK would do likewise and the EU would clearly lose far more than we would in that eventuality. Given that the UK is growing and they're not why would they want to add further misery to their existing plight.
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I don't think barriers will be set up but they certainly don't have to make it as easy as it is now. Obviously any agreement would have to be mutually acceptable but that doesn't mean the deal will be as good. We could easily end up with less access to the single market than we do now but have a deal that is better than nothing. Instead of free movement, for example, we could trade away services. Let's face it free movement is politically untenable for any Government in the UK to agree too in any negotiation.
Also member that each member state has to agree to the deal. So the fact the EU as a whole exports more to us than we export to them may be meaningless if a lot of countries have their trade deficit the other way around.
We'll also have to start our own trade deals with the nations too and this time with a smaller consumer base to offer those at the other side of the table.
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Of course you could be right and irrational, almost revenge based decisions may be made but if that were to happen why would we want to be part of such a club?
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Because pragmatically it's better to do so if the alternative is harmful economically. The EU will have members that act irrationally if we're in or out and so will other trading partners.
I am not arguing we stay in the EU because of the brilliance of their leaders or because I believe in the European ideal. I think we should because the downsides, there are many, are worth it for access to the single market.