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Originally Posted by OLD BOY
Deary me! While noting that you don't have evidence to back up your views, you expect me to quote chapter and verse on all your perceived obstacles to my vision of the future!! Once again, this is a discussion, not a scientific paper and everyone is welcome to disagree with me on my views. All of us have views on many things, without necessarily having all the statistical evidence and hard facts to hand.
Chris and yourself in particular have been pointing out that there are problems to achieving a complete change from broadcast linear TV to streaming. I don't disagree, but that doesn't mean that these problems cannot be overcome. Indeed, a £1.5m project was set up recently with a view to increasing network capacity 'by maximising spectral use and by combining appropriate digital technique with analogue and optical signal processing'. It is suggested that by developing equipment for use in optical fibre networks we can reduce energy consumption by more than half.
I am not denying for one moment that serving up the necessary bandwidth will be a challenge, but it is a challenge that tech companies and research groups are racing to beat. It is not for me to find the answers to these issues but I will say that the tech world appears to be pretty confident that the problems identified will be solved.
I remember that there were siren voices authoritatively saying on these forums a few years ago that VM didn't have sufficient bandwidth to carry all those HD channels. Remember what happened? VM simply created more bandwidth. There are times when people can't see their way through problems that are not theirs to solve.
I am becoming more confident with time that the days of broadcast linear TV are numbered. It is old fashioned and timewasting and I believe a sufficient number of people will eventually grow tired of it, rendering linear channels uneconomic. I think what you need to demonstrate is that viewers will not progressively be attracted to a more efficient means of viewing to the point that advertising revenues are reduced, rendering the present arrangements unviable.
As far as ads on Netflix are concerned, I think such a development would put me and many others off the service altogether. Netflix seem to be able to provide a good range of films and TV series for a pretty reasonable subscription at the moment, although I concede that the price will have to increase over time. Despite their denials, I guess they may introduce ads for those who cannot afford to pay a higher bill for the service, but either way, I think the new streaming offers coming through will be an attractive alternative to existing bundled channels. Currently you can get Freeview, a Now TV Entertainment Pass, Netflix and Amazon for under £20 per month. What the choice for sports fans will be in the future, we will have to wait and see, but I think Sky will be in competition with the global players who have the resources to bid high and provide their wider audiences with cheaper sport.
It is quite possible that more studios will decide to set up their own streaming sites (as HBO have done in the US). However, there will always be sufficient content for Netflix to procure (particularly films), and it will continue to make its own shows. Other content providers will want to make their shows easily accessible via the likes of Netflix (maybe after an initial exclusivity period) to maximise income generation.
I have never said that the BBC, ITV, Channel 4 and Five will be 'going out of business'. Where did that come from? They will simply complete their migration to streaming services, either through i-Player, ITV Player, All 4 and Demand 5, and/or by collaborating together on one site.
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Well OB, you certainly expect others to serve up chapter and verse to counter your thoughts on the future. Fair(ish) comment regards the Netflix advertising, but you have conceded they may well have to introduce ad's to reduce costs, so not sure what else I need to post on the matter.
I don't believe I have ever asked you to make this a scientific discussion, I have just asked you to back up your statements. I have admitted I can't back up my Netflix ad claims, but you have not backed up your statements with any links.
There is no doubt companies are trying to solve the internet/elecrticity problem as it stands, but I am not aware of anyone trying to fix things so every person in the country to watch what they want, when they want it. Perhaps you would care to expand on this statement you psoted "I am not denying for one moment that serving up the necessary bandwidth will be a challenge, but it is a challenge that tech companies and research groups are racing to beat. It is not for me to find the answers to these issues but I will say that the tech world appears to be pretty confident that the problems identified will be solved" and tell me which companies are racing to beat the problem and who is saying they are confident. That will back your argument up pretty well.
Before I go too much further, if linear channels do struggle for advertising in future, what is stop them put the prices up of their content and movies they are going to continue to sell to Netflix (as you suggest Netflix will still buy content), to counter the loss of potential lost ad revenue? Also, what would be the point of Universal (for example) launch a streaming service and still sell some of it's best content to Netflix? Surely that will make their streaming offering less valuable, whilst still making a competitors stronger? Even if Netflix and whoever, come to an agreement, what is to stop the linear based TV company only allowing Netflix 1 episode a week after the channel that owns it has shown it live on linear TV, as has happened with better call saul?
As to whats stopping people not migrating to streaming services, not a great deal at the moment. However, in 20 years time, it will be extremely expensive to what we pay now for the same content. Also, don't forget Now TV is a linear based streaming service, and that can not be used to help your case, because it is, linear TV, not an exclusively On Demand provider.
Now, pray tell, how many streaming services you foresee there being, and how much it will cost us. Please do answer, you have not done so on the few occasions I have asked.