Originally Posted by OLD BOY
These are not my 'plans', Harry, and contrary to what some have been saying on here, the end of linear TV is not 'what I want'. It is mere speculation on my part, inviting discussion, and it is based on what I see as a drift away from conventional method of viewing, with the growth of streaming services.
I'm sure that you are at least half right about existing habits of teenagers, but when they settle down and have their own TV, I can't see them putting up with how linear TV works with all those tempting on demand alternatives present for the taking (and decidedly cheaper than linear premium TV channels). As I have said before, the margin of profitability of these channels is tight, and it would not take a huge audience drop to reduce advertising revenues and force channels off the air.
I have listened to the detractors from this argument, and Chris has made some good points about existing levels of capacity. I am not sufficiently technical to be able to rebuff some of the points he makes but what I can say with a fair degree of confidence is that a way through those problems will be found.
You can criticise me if you like for not coming up with a full technical resume on how the problems Chris mentions can be overcome, but frankly, that is not up to me. This is a discussion, not a business plan! I note, Harry, that you continue to tell us that Netflix will be sporting commercials, despite direct denials by the company, and so your arguments on this subject, with respect, are not so robust either.
In relation to content, I think it is becoming obvious that in years to come, the streaming companies will be picking up exclusively the best programmes available from the US and elsewhere, leaving nothing but the scraps for the broadcast linear channels. So they will have to make or commission more programmes of their own. There are financial implications there that the broadcasters will have to assess very carefully.
Now some will say that Sky's new deal with Showtime proves the opposite, but of course it does not. We are not talking about the now, we are talking about the future. Ultimately, it is the companies with the global reach that will outbid the likes of Sky and our terrestrials. Sky's exclusive deal with Showtime may well prove to be one of its last.
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