Thread: VOD The future for linear TV channels
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Old 01-02-2016, 17:07   #534
OLD BOY
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Re: The future for linear TV channels
Quote:
Originally Posted by harry_hitch View Post
I still don't see this as a problem. Those kids are watching programmes on their iPads/phones because they are bored. They probably don't have a telly of their own yet in their bedrooms, like many people of my generation did, and it is much cheaper for parents to pay an £8.99 for Netflix rather than fork out money for a telly in the kids room and potentially extra set top boxes and multi room subscriptions. 2 tenneagers with 1 extra box each is another £20 on a monthly bill, as opposed to a shared Netflix account.

OB, seeing as you continue to ignore everyone's opinion because it does not fit in with your plans, and still disregard Chris's well worded with decent links on the technical obstacle arguments, I will come back to the debate with this statement - which you can ignore, disregard and refute as you see fit.

I have yet to see you provide anything which shows how people are planning to overcome these technical obstacles. If you have posted them, I apologize for missing them and can you please post the links again so I can continue to make an informed opinion on this.

As these kids and teenagers get older and move out (over the next 10-20 years) no doubt they will then buy a decent TV which will still be coming with free view. Whether that is streamed or not is neither here nor there, it will still be a linear schedule. People will not stop watching linear schedules just because they are impatient and want on demand content only. Having grown up watching what will most likely become an ad laden Netflix, these kids will have watched a lot of its content and unskippable ads and could well be bored of its back catalogue. What do they do then? Binge watch the new exclusives? Awesome, that wastes a few nights. What then? Do the same with Amazon Prime? Okay, that wastes about 6 months worth of binge watched content. What then? Watch nothing because all the content from fta broadcasters or paid content provider is not available to binge watch on demand? No, they will watch what is placed in front of them.

Things may well change, but I still don't see it happening in my lifetime. There are simply too many people who are happy with the way linear tv works.
These are not my 'plans', Harry, and contrary to what some have been saying on here, the end of linear TV is not 'what I want'. It is mere speculation on my part, inviting discussion, and it is based on what I see as a drift away from conventional method of viewing, with the growth of streaming services.

I'm sure that you are at least half right about existing habits of teenagers, but when they settle down and have their own TV, I can't see them putting up with how linear TV works with all those tempting on demand alternatives present for the taking (and decidedly cheaper than linear premium TV channels). As I have said before, the margin of profitability of these channels is tight, and it would not take a huge audience drop to reduce advertising revenues and force channels off the air.

I have listened to the detractors from this argument, and Chris has made some good points about existing levels of capacity. I am not sufficiently technical to be able to rebuff some of the points he makes but what I can say with a fair degree of confidence is that a way through those problems will be found.

You can criticise me if you like for not coming up with a full technical resume on how the problems Chris mentions can be overcome, but frankly, that is not up to me. This is a discussion, not a business plan! I note, Harry, that you continue to tell us that Netflix will be sporting commercials, despite direct denials by the company, and so your arguments on this subject, with respect, are not so robust either.

In relation to content, I think it is becoming obvious that in years to come, the streaming companies will be picking up exclusively the best programmes available from the US and elsewhere, leaving nothing but the scraps for the broadcast linear channels. So they will have to make or commission more programmes of their own. There are financial implications there that the broadcasters will have to assess very carefully.

Now some will say that Sky's new deal with Showtime proves the opposite, but of course it does not. We are not talking about the now, we are talking about the future. Ultimately, it is the companies with the global reach that will outbid the likes of Sky and our terrestrials. Sky's exclusive deal with Showtime may well prove to be one of its last.
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