Damien

I think the polls are a bit unstable at the moment as few of the 'swing' voters will have made a decision. That will come when the date is set and the campaigns start properly.

I still think it will be a Stay vote as I expect Cameron will come back with something and whilst it won't be anywhere enough to convince those on the Out side to switch it may well persuade enough of the swing voters to stick with the safe option - even if the changes are just cosmetic.

Additionally I don't think the Leave campaign is in great shape and there isn't much time left. There are currently three different Leave groups and two of them seem to hate each other. Crucially none of them have given a good idea of what 'Out' looks like. That'll be the killer I expect. You may be able to convince people of the flaws of the EU and the population is generally not found of the institution but if you can't paint a realistic vision of the UK outside the EU then the majority are likely to back the status-quo and the fear of the unknown will be exploited by the pro-EU side.