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**Damien** · 14-01-2016, 17:09

The actual odds according to the bookies is around 33%.

The theory is that you do want to on the losing side for this referendum though, if the losing side is Out anyway. As Scotland shows it can be beneficial to be amongst the insurgents on a losing campaign (unless it's a wipe out) and it's likely that, if lost, the Outers will look to try again and that will start by attempting to elect someone who supports leaving the EU as the next Tory leader.

Osborne is committed to the 'In' campaign and is the front-runner to be next Tory leader. Anyone else who wants it would do well looking to be the candidate of the MPs and Members who support Out.

---------- Post added at 17:09 ---------- Previous post was at 17:05 ----------

Either way this issue won't end after the referendum. If it's stay then the Out campaign will begin again and if it's Out then a In campaign is unlikely to start but then comes the question of Scotland, how we withdraw from the EU and what happens next.

14-01-2016, 17:09	#292
Damien Remoaner Cable Forum Team Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 32,784	re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU The actual odds according to the bookies is around 33%. The theory is that you do want to on the losing side for this referendum though, if the losing side is Out anyway. As Scotland shows it can be beneficial to be amongst the insurgents on a losing campaign (unless it's a wipe out) and it's likely that, if lost, the Outers will look to try again and that will start by attempting to elect someone who supports leaving the EU as the next Tory leader. Osborne is committed to the 'In' campaign and is the front-runner to be next Tory leader. Anyone else who wants it would do well looking to be the candidate of the MPs and Members who support Out. ---------- Post added at 17:09 ---------- Previous post was at 17:05 ---------- Either way this issue won't end after the referendum. If it's stay then the Out campaign will begin again and if it's Out then a In campaign is unlikely to start but then comes the question of Scotland, how we withdraw from the EU and what happens next.