Cable Forum - View Single Post - General Election 2015: Voting intentions & general discussion

**Chris** · 29-04-2015, 20:16

I'm a bit suspicious of Ashcroft polls. During the referendum his sample sizes were rather small for the claims being made from the results. Last I saw, Tory/UKIP was too close, within the margin of error.

Likewise these far-flung claims of the SNP taking every seat in Scotland (not Ashcroft this time, I forget who). The whole thing is predicated on a uniform swing that you have to be wilfully stupid to believe would actually happen. The SNP will get 50+ in Glasgow and the west, as they did in the refendum, and around 45 in lots of other places, which is typically enough to win a Westminster seat. But they won't get it everywhere, and in places like Gordon, where Salmond is standing, there is quite a will amongst unionist voters to do whatever it takes to keep the Nats out.

Nate Silver's analysis suggests the Tories might actually come away from this with two Scottish seats, taking one in the borders off the Lib Dums.

29-04-2015, 20:16	#308
Chris Trollsplatter Cable Forum Team Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: North of Watford Services: Humane elimination of all common Internet pests Posts: 38,583	Re: General Election 2015: Voting intentions & general discussion I'm a bit suspicious of Ashcroft polls. During the referendum his sample sizes were rather small for the claims being made from the results. Last I saw, Tory/UKIP was too close, within the margin of error. Likewise these far-flung claims of the SNP taking every seat in Scotland (not Ashcroft this time, I forget who). The whole thing is predicated on a uniform swing that you have to be wilfully stupid to believe would actually happen. The SNP will get 50+ in Glasgow and the west, as they did in the refendum, and around 45 in lots of other places, which is typically enough to win a Westminster seat. But they won't get it everywhere, and in places like Gordon, where Salmond is standing, there is quite a will amongst unionist voters to do whatever it takes to keep the Nats out. Nate Silver's analysis suggests the Tories might actually come away from this with two Scottish seats, taking one in the borders off the Lib Dums.