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Originally Posted by Damien
Do you really think it's just that though? I would assume that people who were, and are, on various benefits are unlikely to have been Conservative voters (also let's remind ourselves the majority are genuine claimants).
There must be another reason the Tories are struggling. It could be that the recovery has been felt to an unequal degree and those towards the 'decent income but not rich' might not have felt it and feel resentful of that fact. Maybe the fact the recovery has been lopsided towards house prices means that those with assets have felt better off but those that aspire to get on that ladder feel further away than ever.
I think another part of it is UKIP. The Conservatives have struggled to keep some of their core supporters whilst reaching out to the more liberal/moderate voters. There is a sizeable amount of conservative voters who feel they've been let down over Europe, immigration and a general sense of conservative values being abandoned in favour of a more urban 'metropolitan' type of voter.
I don't actually know why really. Maybe it's just a general sense of dissatisfaction at all parties means the vote is split but as I said above this means Labour/SNP win as they have a wider appeal outside of England.
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There is a sense that both Labour and Tories represent remote, metropolitan politics-as-usual. This has dented both their votes in different ways, depending on whether there is a viable local alternative.
The single biggest example of this is the SNP in Scotland, where wee nippy Sturgeon has, apparently, successfully convinced the electorate that they are True Labour, as opposed to a broad coalition of agitators who only really agree on one thing (the wrecking of the UK).
UKIP stands to gain in East England and one or two other places that, I suspect, were working class Tory in the days of Margaret Thatcher.
Elsewhere, the Greens and the Plaidos will pick up votes, but will they find their support sufficiently concentrated in any one place to make much of a breakthrough? I suspect not.