Damien

I still think the UKIP vote will get squeezed out as people go back to the Tories or Labour when they see how close the election is going to be. Our electoral system makes it very hard for smaller parties to make any significant gains and realistically one of the major two will be the basis of a new Government but which one could be decided by a handful of votes in a handful of marginal constituencies.

UKIP are also suffering from having to fight a national campaign instead of a localised by-election. They don't have the infrastructure or capability to do it so are focusing on a few seats and in most of them they have to fight sizeable majorities for one of the major parties. Farage is also facing a real fight in his South Thanet target seat and his loss would really cripple UKIP so he is having to spend most of his time there instead of campaigning nationally which is hurting UKIP elsewhere. Finally it looks like Reckless might is serious danger of losing his seat too.