Originally Posted by Chris

Labour in Scotland has been rudderless since the resignation of an ineffective leader who hardly made an impression while she was in the job. Add to that, the Yessers managed to con a section of the natural Labour vote into supporting independence on lies of milk and honey and you have both push and pull factors influencing the polls.

But Scots voters are not, by and large, stupid. They know the difference between the different chambers they send representatives to. Labour didn't crash and burn in Scotland in 2010 despite Gordon Brown and the financial crisis (in fact, perversely, Gordon Brown was, and still is, quite popular here). They won't crash and burn in 2015 either. Those who say they're going to vote SNP are more or less the people who voted Yes in the referendum, and they're still thumping their fists over the referendum. Once Murphy begins to make an impression and people's minds focus on the issues that are actually pertinent to a general election, that SNP poll lead will melt away.

Let us not forget that, in the midst of the referendum campaign, when they should have been riding the crest of the wave of growing popularity for the idea of voting Yes, the SNP completely failed to break out of its core support at the European elections. In fact, their share of the vote dropped slightly.

When it comes to actually putting an X in a box, far fewer Scottish voters are prepared to support the SNP than will claim in public.