Re: Broadcast TV to close by 2030?
Personally, I think there is room for both, and I don't think the current ISP networks would cope if broadcast TV stopped.
Something like Eastenders gets between 7 and 11 m viewers daily. With Unicasting (which is what all consumer streaming services, including Netflix) do, each extra viewer takes up extra bandwidth. Eastenders may take up 5Mbps, but it will require that 5mbps per user. Multicast internet is not really an option as it requires the stream to start at a certain time, so viewers lose the on demand option. However, Multicast internet shares an advantage with broadcasting. The programme being broadcast takes a finite amount of bandwidth regardless of how many viewers it has. So, Eastenders will take up 5Mbps regardless of whether it has 1 viewer or 11 million.
Regarding replacing SD with HD, again, that's not going to happen anytime soon. Partly because of bandwidth (again, the ISP networks won't be able to cope) and partly because of cost of remastering.
There is a hell of a lot of SD material out there. If a company offers a so called HD service that is mostly SD material, people are going to complain.
Now, you may argue they can remaster as a lot of (particularly us based) shows were shot on film, not video. True. They've been doing this with Star Trek: TNG, and the blu rays look amazing. However, it's also extremely costly to do. It costs a lot to remaster a film (I don't know the figure, but I believe it to be in the low millions), which may be only 1 or 2 hours long. Star Trek: TNG is over 140 hours long, and some TV shows are longer. It's just not viable to remaster most shows unless they can guarantee good boxset sales (as they pretty much can with TNG). Netflix, for all their good work, is unlikely to make enough money from such a series in extra subscriptions to make it work their while. And if Netflix do stream a remastered series immediately, they are going to pretty much torpedo any box set sales.
Bear in mind the source of this announcement. He has a vested interest in this happening as it will remove his major competition.
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