Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
Survation showed Yes and No both making ground at the expense of d/k. Yougov has shown tightening since its last poll, but the really dramatic change is in comparison to the last-but-one, which is why all this morning's commentary is focusing on that. The thing is, last-but-one is when Yougov began down-weighting the voting intentions of people like me, who were born outside Scotland.
I'm really not trying to make it sound like Yes hasn't made progress. Clearly it has. But I do think that Yougov has produced an outlier here. If there was a sizeable, measurable shift to Yes from No, as opposed to Yes from d/k, then Survation would have shown that too, but it didn't.
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I think YouGov may well have produced an outlier as well because of the size of the shift but down-weighting country of birth impacted the last poll. This +4% movement won't be because of that.
http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questi...ed%22%5D#table