Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien
Maybe although the last Survation poll also showed a 4 point gain for Yes. This could simply be that and the movement has stopped or Salmond's NHS tactic is working and the Currency Union impact has already happened.
It did last time but this shows a 4 point gain since then with no apparent methodology change.
I hope you're right. I am starting to get concerned. Even if this does turn out to be the case it's a awful margin to win by and if it does get closer then turnout/motivation etc can be what decides it.
The YouGov polls has Yes leading in every demographic apart from the over-60s. Thankfully they vote en-masse but it's a worrying trend. Better Together need to get their act...together...
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Survation showed Yes and No both making ground at the expense of d/k. Yougov has shown tightening since its last poll, but the really dramatic change is in comparison to the last-but-one, which is why all this morning's commentary is focusing on that. The thing is, last-but-one is when Yougov began down-weighting the voting intentions of people like me, who were born outside Scotland.
I'm really not trying to make it sound like Yes hasn't made progress. Clearly it has. But I do think that Yougov has produced an outlier here. If there was a sizeable, measurable shift to Yes from No, as opposed to Yes from d/k, then Survation would have shown that too, but it didn't.