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Originally Posted by Chris
Can we get a sense of perspective here - Yougov has come into line with a Survation poll that was also published within the last week. If there had been a dramatic swing to Yes, then we would have expected to see it in Survation as well, and most likely, given the historic differences between the two, Survation would have shown Yes in the lead.
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Maybe although the last Survation poll also showed a 4 point gain for Yes. This could simply be that and the movement has stopped or Salmond's NHS tactic is working and the Currency Union impact has already happened.
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Clearly Yes has made up some ground, but can it really be so sudden and so dramatic as Yougov now suggests? There is some evidence that Yougov altered its weighting for its poll published on 15 August, by reducing the significance in its sample of voters who were born outside Scotland. This has reduced the showing for No.
I'm not sticking my head in the sand here, but I think there is more than a whiff of Yougov quietly shifting its own goalposts so that come polling day its predictions are not shown to be wide of the mark.
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It did last time but this shows a 4 point gain since then with no apparent methodology change.
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It's more likely that Survation has had a better handle on things from the outset. Their results have long shown the two sides to be closer together, with a 6 point gap (excluding d/k) since the beginning of June, changed only briefly in the immediate aftermath of the first TV debate.
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I hope you're right. I am starting to get concerned. Even if this does turn out to be the case it's a awful margin to win by and if it does get closer then turnout/motivation etc can be what decides it.
The YouGov polls has Yes leading in every demographic apart from the over-60s. Thankfully they vote en-masse but it's a worrying trend. Better Together need to get their act...together...