Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien
The odds have fallen now for a Yes win. *gulp*
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Well yes, they would have to, based on the polls.
Can we get a sense of perspective here - Yougov has come into line with a Survation poll that was also published within the last week. If there had been a dramatic swing to Yes, then we would have expected to see it in Survation as well, and most likely, given the historic differences between the two, Survation would have shown Yes in the lead.
Clearly Yes has made up some ground, but can it really be so sudden and so dramatic as Yougov now suggests? There is some evidence that Yougov altered its weighting for its poll published on 15 August, by reducing the significance in its sample of voters who were born outside Scotland. This has reduced the showing for No.
I'm not sticking my head in the sand here, but I think there is more than a whiff of Yougov quietly shifting its own goalposts so that come polling day its predictions are not shown to be wide of the mark.
It's more likely that Survation has had a better handle on things from the outset. Their results have long shown the two sides to be closer together, with a 6 point gap (excluding d/k) since the beginning of June, changed only briefly in the immediate aftermath of the first TV debate.