Quote:
Originally Posted by Derek
It shows an almost 50/50 split until you read the methodology and find it was 1000 adults surveyed over 2 months ago.  |
Almost as if they were holding on to it until they needed something to create the impression of momentum. But they wouldn't do that, would they?
---------- Post added at 09:13 ---------- Previous post was at 09:10 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien
Looks like ICM will show the Yes vote increasing. Ugh. We do not want them picking up momentum coming into the last month...
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The Undecideds are starting to decide and the polls, which have always had trouble working out how to weight for these, are all over the place.
As Derek pointed out, of the remaining undecideds, they are 2:1 in favour of No, which is what you would expect, No being Status Quo, which typically picks up in the last days of a constitutional campaign. The "excluding don't knows" headline figure effectively attributes the undecided votes 50:50 to each side, so in this case that 55:45 result is very flattering to Yes.
I still think we are heading for a No victory by 60:40 or better.