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Old 26-05-2014, 13:51   #1445
Chris
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Some interesting points arising from the Euro result in Scotland.

1. Despite having a higher profile than ever, a bank account groaning with lottery winnings and standing on the claim that Scotland needs independent representation in Europe, the SNP's support has gone nowhere since 2009. Actually, it's down just a fraction on the last Euros. It is down something like 16 points on Holyrood 2011, but it would be tricky to draw too much from that. What should not be understated, however, is that 71% of those who voted, rejected the argument that Scotland can't effectively be represented in Europe by any party that is not distinctly, uniquely Scottish.

2. Salmond takes every opportunity to claim that the Scottish body politic is distinct from the English. These results prove that actually, it's just a variation on the same thing. UKIP is on the rise in Scotland too, from a lower base but nevertheless doubling its support. UKIP is only slightly more popular in London than it is in Scotland (which have similar population levels), and won one seat in each. Bet you don't hear any SNP ministers talking up that similarity in the coming days.

3. The SNP and the Greens campaign for Scotland to remove itself from the UK. The combined support for these parties, based on the Euro election, is 37%, leaving the unionist parties with almost 63%. This was not an independence refendum, but with the intensity of campaigning that has been going on in Scotland, surely if Yes was on course to win a majority there would be *some* evidence of it in a real election held just 4 months from referendum day, and more than a year since campaigning began? As things stand, the combined support for separatist parties at this election is well within the usual range of separatist sentiment in Scotland.

4. Salmond claims that Scotland does not share England's Eurosceptic instincts. Yet Scotland has just binned its only Lib Dem (arch federalist) MEP and replaced him with an arch-sceptic from UKIP. Chew on that, Eck.
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