Chris

It's worth remembering that there was predicted to be a "Yes bounce" after the currency intervention by Alexander OsBalls. That bounce was then followed by the SNP spring conference, which was their last decent chance to get their own undiluted separatist message onto the telly. From now on, the broadcasters in particular, are going to be scrupulously balanced (BBC Scotland did a set-piece studio interview with Eck last week, purely because Cameron was in Scotland for two days, and said lots about the referendum).

When the facts for and against are presented, and people then get to express a view in absolute secrecy, there is a substantial natural majority in favour of the Union in Scotland, and not just amongst us English settlers. Although the demographic is somewhat skewed, the best illustration we have so far are the mock referendums held on university campuses all over Scotland in the last 6 months. IIRC every single one of them has voted No, and most of those have done so by a very comfortable margin.

None of this means we should be complacent. The SNP will make shameless propaganda out of every podium finish Scotland achieves at the forthcoming Commonwealth Games (quietly omitting to mention the role the UK training structure plays in developing elite sport in all the home nations, but that's par for the course) and there is always the risk of what the strategists call a "black swan incident". We also need to ensure all potential No voters understand that they will only get a No if every single one of them actually goes out to vote.

But, on balance, things are on course.