[Osem]

It should not be up to Putin to decide what these former Soviet states do but it'd be naïve to think that Russia won't act if it continues. Unfortunately that's the world we're living in and the reality we have to confront. If there were to be a sudden rush of former Soviet states to join the EU and Nato we may all argue that it's their right to do so but exercising that right is likely going to lead to some form of military conflict which will serve nobody well and could spiral out of control.

The big question is not whether these states have a right to determine their own futures but the extent to which the west will back their decisions with economic and even military support. We all know what the US did when the Russians tried to ship missiles to Cuba and how close were to WWIII. If we understand those actions maybe we should also understand that Putin doesn't want to be surrounded by western leaning countries who see their future in the EU and Nato. There are many wrongs in this world which we can't and won't sort out for all sorts of reasons, not the least of which is the cost/risk of so doing. Maybe the fate of certain former Soviet states falls into that category but we ought to bear in mind that raising false hopes amongst them could backfire very badly indeed.

How would the west react, I wonder, if all the former Soviet states decided they wanted to be part of Russia again and become hosts to their military forces. How would we react if the Russians started making overtures to Turkey and other nations the EU sees as possible future members. What would we do if the Turkish people voted to leave Nato as a result and join a military alliance with Russia. Would we do nothing and simply respect their right to do so? At what point does the threat to the west become so serious that military action is inevitable?