Every team that gets through has a chance of winning, it's just that some teams have a better chance than others...
I don't hear many real England fans saying we can realistically win it. What I do hear is the usual suspect journalists and commentators postulating ad nauseam about us winning it every time we play a good game against a decent team (which isn't very often) and then doing the complete opposite when we lose or play poorly. Bigging up the national team then knocking them down is a media thing designed to fill their pages and airtime. Most rational fans are, I'm sure, only too aware that England are a poor team at worst and a good team at best. Good teams don't tend to win much and I don't see that ever changing for England unless we have a drastic rethink about the way we run and prioritise football in the UK. I believe that horse has bolted and the stable door has been firmly locked by the Premier League however...