IMO, the most likely scenario over the next few months is:
- BT Sport launching, as a standalone package
- Sky Atlantic (& HD) added to XL, from money paid to ESPN
- Some of the extra ESPN money being used for bringing in other HD Channels, such as Universal and History (i.e. companies who have recently signed new deals, waiting for ESPN to leave the XL pack)
Personally, I think that would be a pretty good result. Being a sports subscriber, BT in the XL pack would be a nice luxury, but you can't always have perfection.