View Single Post
Old 12-06-2013, 12:07   #1446
Chris
Trollsplatter
 
Chris's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: North of Watford
Services: Humane elimination of all common Internet pests
Posts: 38,262
Chris has a golden auraChris has a golden auraChris has a golden auraChris has a golden auraChris has a golden aura
Chris has a golden auraChris has a golden auraChris has a golden auraChris has a golden auraChris has a golden auraChris has a golden auraChris has a golden auraChris has a golden auraChris has a golden aura
Re: Eurozone will collapse...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien View Post
Wouldn't they have had to close it anyway? It's not as if they were floating in money before...
Why would they have had to close it?

The austerity measures in Greece (real austerity, by the way, not the softly-softly austerity lite we have in the UK), have been mandated by the Troika as a condition of bail-out funds. And at least one member of that Troika, the IMF, has been found to have ignored its own basic operating principles, its very reason to exist, in fact, because it has been acting to save a supra-national currency rather than to rescue a national economy.

Greece's fundamental problem is that its exchange rate is too high. The Euro is simply too expensive for it to use as a national currency. The solution is for it to default on all its Euro-denominated debt, issue Drachmas and begin paying all public sector employees in that currency. The result would be a severe short-term economic shock for Greece, but let's face it, when you get to the point where you have to close down your state broadcaster at less than 24 hour's notice just to keep the rest of the country ticking over, how much worse can things actually get?

With the Drachma floating freely Greece could start to rebuild. The Drachma would be worth next to nothing initially, but Greece has very strong tourism potential and still has something of a shipping industry, so therefore a ready means of earning foreign currency.

This is inevitable, if not now, then within the next five years. The only question is whether they accept the inevitability and do it in a managed way, or wait until circumstances force them into an unplanned, chaotic fall out of the Euro system.
Chris is offline   Reply With Quote