Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
Not very likely in this case. Any business that can see its profits fall by 60% and yet still walk away €2.1bn. in the black has got to be doing reasonably well, given the circumstances.
I think the worst is still to come in the Eurozone because the EZ governments and the ECB are determined to keep the patient on life support by chucking piles of cash at it, but sooner or later, maybe in one year, maybe in 3 or 5, the money will run out and they will then have to face up to the fact that EZ economic policy is making the problem worse and making recovery not just more difficult, but quite impossible. At that point it will royally hit the fan.
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I don't think it will collapse. I think the main danger has passed now. 6 to 8 months ago was probably the time it was most at risk and some pundits seemed sure that it was about to collapse but that never materialized. Their presumption of the way the crisis would unfold never happened. Spain especially managed to avoid the collapse that, at one point, seemed days or weeks away. It's still possible it will collapse of course but it's harder, albeit not impossible, to see how now.
Spain's cost of borrowing dropped below
5% last month continuing the trend downwards from October. Italy also saw their borrowing come down to around 4%.
France's cost is now about equal to ours! Ultimately the dominos did not topple.
I think the Eurozone know they're not out of the woods. Idiotic policy could scupper it still but they've spent the last couple of years with the Euro in a critical condition and now it's stable. They just have to take this chance to save it. It's not exactly on life support anymore. The Euro stands a much better chance of surviving than it did this time last year.
I could be wrong of course, I often am. Although that puts in the same tent as the economists predicting the Euro's demise last year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirius
Dam has it still not collapsed, "starts singing Why are we waiting"  |
You might be singing a longer song. Besides I never understood the glee at which people looked towards Europe cheering it's seeming demise.
---------- Post added at 20:08 ---------- Previous post was at 20:02 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by mertle
With news recently USA contraction I can only see worlds economy head for another big shock.
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The USA will be fine. The contraction was small and people seem confident it was a one off, certainly their other numbers are very good.