Quote:
Originally Posted by heero_yuy
The whole speech is littered with "ifs":
If he's still the leader, if the Tories win the next election outright, if he can get any significant powers back from the EU and if he doesn't what then? No referendom you can be sure.
You have to take the speech apart bit by bit and check any interpretation that can be applied. It's the same for any politician you'll never gat a cast iron garantee you could trust.
I'll not believe we have a choice on the EU until I'm in that booth with a piece of paper with an unequivical yes / no choice that cannot be welched upon.
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Well it's unlikely he will be replaced by a more pro-European Conservative and, as much as the backbenches may moan, he isn't likely to be replaced before the next election anyway. The biggest if is if they win the next election but if a lot of the work is already done then Labour would need to ditch it (as opposed to simply not doing anything) and that may prove difficult.
He is called the referendum regardless of the result of any changes. He hasn't made clear what he would advocate for in the event no concessions are made but I suspect it would still be to stay in. However I think Europe will throw a few minor concessions in but that it will fall short of what Cameron wants - he'll present it as a win anyway.
It's hard to imagine that a referendum won't happen now. I think the pro-EU side will win it however.