Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrysalis
updating software is trivial. and 30 year old software is something for those dev's to worry about not yourself an isp.
A long term future is probably every end user still been able to use an ipv4 ipfor legacy alongside ipv6, but those people with ip ranges been moved over to ipv6 this will free up many ip's, many datacentres do this already, they give a base ipv4 but additional ips are ipv6, and I have datacentres trying to reclaim ip's of me as well. For this reason I am dual stacking alot of services I host now as eventually those services will have to be ipv6 only. I also am testing ipv6 on my home rig although I can only do this via tunneling due to the fact I cant get ipv6 of either of my isp's.
The dual stacking for long time as you put it should have started 10 years ago then CG nat wouldnt have been close to been needed, plus I think wont be needed is isp's manage ips well like removing of customers with multiple ips instead of natting people with single ips.
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I'm not disagreeing with what you're saying about how the future will pan out (regarding dual stacking and such), however I think you're completely underestimating the software issue. IT's not hard to update software, but the same logic can be said for why Windows ensures so much backwards compatibility - because people just don't update their software. It costs too much and the older the software is, the more it costs. IPv6 isn't an evolution of IPv4, it's completely different and would need to be coded from scratch in most software.
Then look at the (prime example) of games - Microsoft charges to release title updates, so which publishers are liable to pay developers to update the code, then go through certification and all that? It just isn't going to happen. It's actually just easier to stick to IPv4, even if it's NAT'd. Likely what'll happen in future is everyone will have IPv4 via NAT and if you need a dedicated IP, you can pay extra for it.
Eventually, you'll probably lose all IPv4 support until you specifically request it from your ISP. I don't think IPv4 will ever be totally eradicated, it'll exist in some form for the next 50 years at least.