[roughbeast]

Originally Posted by qasdfdsaq

It's affecting every single VM monitor I've seen but has not been shown to affect any other traffic to/from VM.

The onset isn't unlike something caused by congestion, the decline however indicates a sudden switch, e.g. routing got fixed or degraded link brought back online.

The sharpness of these things really doesn't say much, it's the relative sharpness of the increase and decline, which if caused by congestion should be similar at both ends.

I'm not yet convinced by your view on the sharpness of the onset. On my TBB graph there was a normal profile until something like 7.50 pm. By 8.15 pm the blip was at its peak. Admittedly the decline at the other end of the blip was virtually instant, but I would have expected a much more gradual onset if collective human behaviour is the only cause. ie thousands of users caning their connections soon after they get home from work somewhere around 6.00 pm.