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Originally Posted by Chrysalis
do the SDP affect english elections?
the uk council results are more relevant than votes SDP have got off labour because they a party people would vote for instead of labour. It was a change.
It would go against all historical data if an election were called tommorow for labour voties to vote for tory in an era of brutal cuts. The majority of lib dem voters are mor elikely to side under lab than the tories so lost lib dem votes is more likely to boost lab than the tories.
I have explained this to you multiple times, whilst you have made short comments saying you disagree but your only reasoning is what happened in scotland under a different voting system.
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If my answers are short chrys, perhaps it's because all I'm doing is challenging you to provide some basis for your propositions. So far you're really not doing very well. And, by the way, it does nothing for my confidence in your grasp of the issues when you start talking about the SDP. I assume you actually mean the SNP.
You appear to think that someone has suggested Scotland would vote Tory rather than SNP in the event of a general election. This is bizarre. Nobody has suggested that - least of all me, because, guess what, I actually have some grasp of Scottish politics.
In Scotland, Labour tried to scare the voters by raising the spectre of evil Tories and suggesting that Scottish voters should use the Holyrood elections to send a protest message to David Cameron. Guess what: they didn't. The Tory vote in Scotland dipped a little, but well within its normal range. The Labour vote, on the other hand, totally collapsed, as did the Lib Dem vote.
The message is quite clear. Scottish voters are unmoved by the Tories (with the exception of about 10-15% of the electorate, the Scots don't like them, that's just how things are). They are fed up with Labour treating them contemptuously as some sort of mindless Labour-voting machine, and they blame the Liberal Democrats for the fact the Tories are in power.
You can stick your fingers in your ears and sing lahlah all you like chrys. The fact is, Labour cannot rely on the level of support it needs to deliver enough seats in Scotland; in the north of England Labour has merely reclaimed
some of the disaffected instinctive Labour voters who went for the Lib Dems last time because they'd rather die than vote Tory, and in the south of England they made little or no impact at all.
If you want to concoct a Fantasy Commons based on last week's vote shares, you can't simply pick the %ages you like and ignore the ones you don't like (or don't understand). You either feed all the data in, or else don't bother.
And as for this:
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I wonder why the tories arent calling an election now? seems they disagree with you and dont think they will get power.
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I don't believe I have claimed that the Tories should call an election now and would 'get power'. I believe what I have claimed is that your idea that the recent elections show that
Labour would win a snap election called now is a fantasy.