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Old 05-04-2011, 10:22   #27
Chrysalis
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Join Date: Sep 2003
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Re: * News * Politics * Economic policy Ministers admit family debt burden i

Scenarios.

1 - cut spending brutally and lower taxes, ignition's idea. This is a one way street to recession, economies grow on spending, cutting public spending will shrink it. Tax cuts mean spending has to be cut even further to balance the books. This will mainly course a disproportionate gain to the wealthy. After all taxation is enforced spreading of wealth for the benefit of the majority.
2 - maintain spending and taxes, sounds ok except there is a deficit to fix so not viable long term.
3 - increase spending and taxation. Taxation would have to increase more than spending to balance the deficit, could be doable with income tax increases as they are very low compared to historical levels. Would likely trigger a recovery but could have longer term consequences.
4 - increase spending and reduce taxation. Fast track to IMF

Of course a number of basic problems need fixing, if these get fixed somewhow then the rest will fall in place.

1 - wages falling behind living costs, so basically 'real' inflation exceeding income levels. This has been a problem for a decade or more at least, hence the reliance on debt to get through life.
2 - unbalanced economy and investment, certian parts of the country clearly significantly more wealthy than others and this is not been helped by certian areas been a magnet for investment and others not touched.
3 - unregulated capitalism. Its basic maths. If someone gets richer, then someone else is getting poorer at the same time. There is limited money supply which means there is no such scenario where everyone wins. If you track the wealth of billionaires during recessions it is not uncommon to see them see large growth during those periods in comparison to booms. I am not calling for communism, but its clear there needs to be a manipulated shift of some form to transfer wealth from the few rich to the majority poor.

All of this is unlikely to be fixed and especially #3, so government's choose a easy cop out. They make credit easier and as such introduce new money so the rich can see their growth without giving it to the poor, instead the poor just borrow so they can spend. Notice how governments consider it a priority to get things right for the banks to loan out again, thats how they see a recovery.
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