Quote:
Originally Posted by chris9991
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12272717
Have to say it doesn't suprise me that it happened (forecast were between +0.2% and +0.7%)
Wouldn't like to blame it all on the weather though
And if Q1 contracts then we'll be in a double dip recession
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Not shocked here. This was predicted last year but ignored by the ConDems. Their ideological approach to economic planning is not going to do this nation any favours at all.
---------- Post added at 14:13 ---------- Previous post was at 14:11 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem
Well I've just been listening to Ed Balls (on LBC News) trivialising the exceptionally bad weather which swept the UK at the end of last year as akin to 'leaves on the line'. It's odd how, at the time, I seem to recall the his party was slamming HMG's pathetic response to the weather which had brought large parts of the UK to a virtual standstill. Not exactly 'leaves on the line' then was it?? 
Yes, I doubt he'd be saying quite the same thing if were in power but then this is this the sort of ridiculous spin we all got used to during the Bliar/Brown years and it's coming from a guy who played a key role in what went wrong in the first place.
Nice to know you've absolved yourself and your party from any responsibiltiy for the mess we're in Mr Balls....  |
In December of 2009 and January 2010 we had some of the worst snowfall on record at the time, yet the economy grew by 0.4% for two quarters in a row.
---------- Post added at 14:16 ---------- Previous post was at 14:13 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem
Given the huge importance of the pre-Christmas quarter to the economy and the extent of the bad weather, I reckon the snow etc. played a very big role in the poor figures (which IIRC were particularly bad in the service sector). A truer test will be the following set of numbers and if they're equally bad then things will be indeed looking pretty gloomy.
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Ths is truly the scary bit:
Quote:
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Normally we're cautious about reading too much into what is only a first estimate of growth figures. They are due for revision. However, the ONS says today's numbers focus on the output side of the economy (services, construction and manufacturing) and don't include consumer spending, which is the area that would be most affected by the weather. This means that the second estimate, due in a month, could come in even worse.
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So the figures published today, do not even include retail output.
---------- Post added at 14:17 ---------- Previous post was at 14:16 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem
Some are more 'the same' than others IMHO.... 
There's little doubt that, barring more exceptional circumstances, the next figures should show a truer picture. |
The current figures haven't even shown the last bits of "
exceptional circumstances," let alone any possible future ones.