[danielf]

Tory lead narrows amid huge voter disenchantment, Times poll finds

The general election race is tightening, according to a Populus poll for The Times that reveals deep public disenchantment with the campaign so far. The poll, undertaken yesterday and this morning, says that more voters are now hoping for a hung parliament than either a Tory or a Labour outright victory. Conservative support has slipped by three points over the past week to 36 per cent, while Labour is a point up at 33 per cent. The Liberal Democrats are unchanged on 21 per cent. The polls tend to fluctuate by a couple of points either way, and these shifts are within the margin of error of the average. With other new polls pointing to a firming in Labour support, the party may have enjoyed a small boost from its manifesto launch. Tory strategists will hope to have achieved a boost from its manifesto launch today.

If the Populus figures were repeated in the general election in three weeks’ time, and there is a uniform switch in votes, Labour would be the largest single party, with about 300 MPs, ahead of the Tories on 264 and the Lib Dems on 54. This would point to a Lab/Lib Dem coalition. But many analysts do not expect a uniform national swing.

The latest poll shows that 32 per cent of the public now hope for a hung parliament (as opposed to expecting one), against 28 per cent wanting a Tory majority and 22 per cent a Labour one. Lib Dem voters prefer a deal with Labour than the Tories in a hung parliament, by 44 to 31 per cent. The public is evenly split 40 to 42 per cent about whether they want Labour or the Tories in either a majority or a minority government.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle7096632.ece