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Originally Posted by Chrysalis
ignition the people you speak off will still download 100s of gig per month, the most serial downloaders dont use the well known torrents and will still happily download, so what will change?
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You are not looking at the "big picture". The DEB is not simply VM monitoring what goes across P2P - it encompasses the entire gamut of file transfer protocols - the internet and digital exchange mechanisms in their entirety.
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Originally Posted by Chrysalis
legit sales might go up by a single digit number.
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That is a good thing from a creative industries investment perspective, and certainly for artists, both new and established.
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Originally Posted by Chrysalis
underground, pirated goods sold in pubs, in the workplace, on the market will grow again. These people were the real victims of internet piracy, it was their customers that went online and started downloading. People who can afford and are happy to buy media still do that anyway.
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Proportionately those bodies with enforcement powers to deal with such activities will do so. You are correct in saying the "bloke down the pub" was a prime victim of internet theft however his "piracy" was commercially geared, most internet "pirates" are, themselvelves, not commercial enterprises however those that are profiting from facilitating the infringement of copyrighted works have seen / are seeing the writing on the wall - Rapidshare, Newsbinz etc.
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Originally Posted by Chrysalis
So it will be a comibination of people finding more discreet ways to download, hard pirated copies of media been sold on the streets, and a few perhaps resorting to buying media but I expect a lot more will simply choose to go without than buying it.
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Yes, but as the media industries adapt their delivery, pricing and distribution models the excuses for doing so will become more & more vaucous. In a few weeks / months time the very notion of a "more discreet" way to download (at least as far as using the internet to do so) will be a thing of the past. Culpability and accountability are two words which ISPs and "pirates" are very uncomfortable with. Unfortunately for both of them they form the backbone of the DEB.
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Originally Posted by Chrysalis
Lets not forget one thing, the #1 reason people dont buy media is a lack of availability. They either want content not available in their country yet or want old content the copyright holders dont want to make available.
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Simply not true. The #1 reason people don't buy media is because technology, the internet and ISPs enabled them to acquire stuff for free. The internet afforded everybody a global, non territorially bound, opportunity to avail of media simultaneously. The fact that the media companies didn't react to this opportunity immediately (due in no small part to contractual obligations already in place between themselves, artists, producers, studios, retailers and distributors of both music and movies) is not an excuse for people to wantonly infringe the copyright of those artists / holders.
Many of those aforementioned contracts (particularly those of a distribution nature) are coming to their term end and new arrangements / terms are / have been negotiated for global release days as opposed to the old territorial models. These changes, particularly in relation to "catalogue", will become evident in the coming months. I wonder what the "pirates" excuse will be then?
"Old content" has, by it's very nature, already been made available. The fact that you cannot get certain content in a certain format is a result of contractual obligations having been met by one or more parties to an agreement which has expired. If sufficient numbers of fans lobbied the licencees of the material they might, ordinarily, have been able to secure e a re-release in a new format (say cd). However, given the very nature of what you describe as a reason for demand (ie. illegal downloading / piracy) who, in their right mind, would risk such a venture?
Ebay will turn up almost anything of an "old content" nature. However, speaking as an avid collector of rare vinyl, one might reasonably be expected to pay not inconsiderable sums for certain pressings of "old content". The payment for anything on the part of most internet "pirates" is an alien concept to them. Hence their voracious appetite for "all you can eat for free" (at someone else's expense, obviously).