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Your the one making the mistake in thinking predicting short term weather patterns, like will it rain next week, is the same science as forecasting weather trends and examining those in the past. They know which conditions cause certain events (hurricanes, floods, droughts) and they can estimate the likelihood of those occurring again.
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No I'm not, the Met office predicted that this summer would be very hot, they went on record at the begining of the year, and they were wrong. I'm not talking about next here but months in advance.
Obviously using all of their historical data they predicted a blazing UK summer, and were wrong.
Predicting Hurricanes is easy, I predict that there will be several hurricanes and/or tropical storms in the South Atlantic and Carribean between August and October.
The truth of the matter is that "scientists" and "experts" don't know what effect the changing climate will have on the planet.