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Old 19-02-2008, 20:57   #11
BBKing
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Re: 17-th suicide in Bridgend

Quote:
Who gives a stuff about statistics
Practically everybody in charge of anything in developed nations? This is no time for anti-intellectualism, Mick, it's too serious for that.

Quote:
17 suicides of young people - apparently all unconnected since Jan 07.
In what area? Compared to what baseline? I'd better refer people to the National Statistics website, updated today for all of us to do our own analyses, which I've checked out - generally suicides have been going down for nearly a decade. However, the younger and maler you are the more likely you are to commit suicide. Men are way, way more susceptible, in fact the most obvious thing that suggests something odd and worrying is going down in Wales is that a number of the victims are young women, who are the *least* likely historically.

The other thing about Bridgend that stands out is that it bucked the national reducing trend for male suicide - from 1991-1997 (before the current economic boom) it was 113th on the national list of areas, from 1998-2004 it went up to 48th. That's for men 15+. For women it went down from 247th to 291st, so they're even less likely - there were only 15 suicides *total* for women in that area in six years 1998-2004.

Going back to the male statistics, the rise from 113rd to 48th was 65 places. The highest in the country was 328 places, 352nd to 24th for ...Blaenau Gwent (Harlow also was this bad). In fact South Wales seems a bit of a hotspot:

Blaenau Gwent: 352nd -> 24th
Caerphilly: 365th -> 65th
Vale of Glamorgan: 350th -> 209th
Bridgend: 113rd -> 48th
Rhondda Cynon Taff: 205th -> 81st
Merthyr Tydfil: 111th -> 40th
Neath Port Talbot: 27th -> 27th (in other words it was already pretty bad)

In other words South Wales has had an increasing suicide rate while the UK national trend has been downwards.

This is a bit crude, admittedly - it obscures the fact that North Wales and rural West Wales was already pretty poor, but getting better. South Wales was good, except Neath Port Talbot, but getting worse. If that's continued up till now, what we're seeing is a larger issue brought to media attention by a particular set of circumstances, and it could be a whole lot worse. Any South Wales residents able to shed any light?
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