Quote:
Originally Posted by Stuart C
The problem with all these predictions of the end of the world is simply that we don't have a lot (relatively speaking) of data to build a climate model on. We have around 200 years worth of data, but can only guarentee the accuracy of the last 40 years or so worth of data. So, essentially, we are predicting the actions of a system that has operated for millions of years based on a couple of hundred years of data (160 of which is possibly not accurate).
To me, it seems a bit like predicting the personality of a person you've only just met based on their actions in the first 2 minutes.
|
Try telling that to the people of New Orleans. Building any city below sea level on the coastline is a recipe for disaster.
Holland has just built a fantastic sea defence system to prevent the same thing happening to them.
Predictions merely give us the opportunity to see possible outcomes and to prepare for them. Invariably, when we fail to take basic preparations some disaster happens.
We are already seeing worsening weather round the world; sea levels are rising; trees and plants which absorbed excess CO2 are being cut down; there's a hole in the Ozone layer caused by CFCs etc. That does suggest lines of action we can take.
As for personality predicting, I suppose it depends what happens in those two minutes.