Russia shoots down passenger plane over Grozny
 

BBC finally catching up with what most of the internet had worked out by lunchtime yesterday (and, crucially, Russia is in the early stages of issuing denials, which pretty much clinches it).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgp3qx0q7wo

For those who have had more interesting things to do over the past 24 hours, there are clear signs of a near-miss by an air defence missile on the surviving tail section of the aircraft after its crash-landing in Aktau, Khazakstan. Unlike MH117 which was intercepted near enough on the nose and disintegrated mid-air (so the shrapnel impacts could only clearly be seen when the wreckage was reassembled), this appears to have been an ‘almost’ hit, with the shrapnel going through the rear part of the fuselage and tail, causing a significant loss of flight control.

Tellingly, Russian authorities refused permission for an emergency landing at any of the 3 airports near Grozny, forcing it to fly over the Caspian Sea towards Khazakstan. A cynic might think they were hoping it would crash into the sea where its wreckage might never be found.

Re: Russia shoots down passenger plane over Grozny
 

Truly heartbreaking, from the footage I’ve seen the pilots did a valient job and very nearly got it back down again, but the damage appeared to be to the rear elevators which would make controlling the pitch of the plane very difficult.

At least some made it out.

Re: Russia shoots down passenger plane over Grozny
 

Some pundits yesterday were saying the climbing and falling seen on the video is characteristic of pilots attempting to control pitch by increasing/decreasing speed. It’s a miracle they even reached Aktau; some sources are claiming the Russians jammed GPS across the entire Caspian Sea. They really, really didn’t want it to land where anyone could examine it.

Re: Russia shoots down passenger plane over Grozny
 

Putin apologises for plane crash, without saying Russia at fault

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqx8l1533j5o