Cable Forum - Post-Brexit Thread

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Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35847021)

Except that doesn't meet their definition of free movement and per the above every indication so far is that they will not deviate from this. You can't agree something with someone then change the definition of it to suit your own needs.

It might work. They may have to compromise. It's just an idea....

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

BTW EEA has a break on freedom of movement...

---------- Post added at 21:29 ---------- Previous post was at 21:08 ----------

Interestingly I think if your pension is largely invested in international markets or FTSE 100 companies then it's probably gone up as the value of those investments relative to the pound has increased....

I suspect though that inflation will eat into that, especially given how much we import, and if it recovers the inverse would happen but it's still something that I found interesting.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Just read a financial analayst's report and shorted the pound against the dollar.

If people are going to bugger our economy for the next 3-4 years the least I can do is make a few quid off it. :tu:

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

With a fair few other EU countries now saying that they want a referendum on things like the Euro and immigration, it looks like our leave vote has given them the confidence to speak out.

Hopefully the EU will decide to give in, rather than risk collapse.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

We'll see. The EU will either give us a hard time to discourage others or make some small reform to placate those still inside the club and maybe extend that to us too.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Okay, here ya go.

These are the work of Alex White, @AlexWhite1812, Director of Country Analysis at the Economist Intelligence Unit and his team.

Spoiler:

Quote:

EIU Brexit Take

1. Brexit has plunged the UK into political, economic and market turmoil. We expect this turmoil to be sustained

2. Financial market volatility will persist, while uncertainty over the future of the UK's relationship with EU will feed into real economy

3. We significantly revised our economic forecast. After growth of 1.5% this year, we expect contraction of 1% in 2017

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/local/2016/06/3.jpg

4. We expect to see decline in investment of 8% and decline in private consumption of 3% in 2017 with the pound levelling out at $1.24

5. The vote has transformed our fiscal forecasts. Falling tax rev & higher social transfers as unemployment rises

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/local/2016/06/4.jpg

6. We now expect the UK's public debt burden to reach 100% of GDP by 2018

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/local/2016/06/5.jpg

7. This hit brings UK's post-crisis recovery to a halt. 2018 real GDP will be almost 4% below pre-referendum forecast (2020 = 6% below)

8. While this is going on, politics will remain deeply fractious. The Govt, the main parties, parliament & the Union all face big threats

9. We expect two months of chaos in the near-term. New PM Johnson (or May) will be in post in Sept, and start to figure out way ahead

10. The UK will likely invoke Art 50 before year end, implying that negotiations will conclude in late 2018

11. UK will agree an EEA minus deal with significant constraints on services access in return for limitations on migration

12. Much of the financial services sector may be left in the cold

13. New PM will eat heroic quantities of humble pie to get the deal; UK will be permanently out of the room on big decisions

14: This new deal will be confirmed through either a second referendum or a general election at the end of the process

15. Leavers will tell voters they wont get what they want on migration. Will lead to major backlash = structural rise for radical right

16. This is a particular threat for Labour. We expect UKIP etc to mount a serious challenge in Labour heartlands (even with Corbyn gone)

17. UK establishment will take time to fully reassert itself. Lack of planning / credibility will lead to ongoing doubts about capacity

18. Much of the UK's 'political stability premium' based on predictability / reliability etc could be lost for long time

19. As UK leaves, recovery will be underway but economy & politics will look structurally different

20. We are not predicting second Scot ref at this stage, but constitutional settlement needs to change (inc London / FPTP?)

21. Impacts across Europe will be substantial. We have taken 0.2% off growth and see larger political risks – particularly in Italy/France

22. The region is capable of managing Brexit, and other crises in isolation. It may not be capable of managing several crises at once

23. We expect things to hold together, but see major downside risks – include possibility EU wont deal, or that crises spin out of control

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Don't like to say this. BUT, and MP has tonight has said that Parliament should have the guts to overrule the OUT vote. And remain in the EU.

Eve though we have voted to go from the EU. It has to be passed in Parliament.
And that could be why, they have not activated '50' yet.

And with all the Demos, and MPs saying that they will overrule it. Says something

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ramrod (Post 35846994)

I wonder how this would work:
Keep free movement but remove all benefits to anyone coming here.
If they have/get a job and earn sufficient wages to pay sufficient tax then they get access to the nhs. None of this council house/tax credit/child benefit to send back to Latvia etc malarkey. Come here and earn enough to support yourself because there are no hand outs if you don't.
That would probably sort the wheat from the chaff at a stroke.
Thoughts?

Excellent idea. We should do this not only to EU migrants, but with every immigrant.

It should be less about what help we can give to them and more about what they have to offer that can help the UK.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arthurgray50@blu (Post 35847053)

So triggering article 50 is currently rated at 5/2 on Sky Bet. 2018 or later, or never, is at 3/1.

I suspect it would take something catastrophic for 50 to not be triggered this year. We'll see.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35847052)

Okay, here ya go.

These are the work of Alex White, @AlexWhite1812, Director of Country Analysis at the Economist Intelligence Unit and his team.

The prospect of gains for the far-right if immigration isn't now curbed is a serious concern.

I do wonder why they're so convinced the government will accept a deal that tanks the banking sector though. Economic madness if we do that.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35847058)

Because free movement is a red line on both sides, and services easiest place to 'compromise'. Incomplete free movement = incomplete single market access.

They clearly read the stuff coming out of Paris too.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Why can't the EU just realise that if it sticks to the current plan they will be responsible for the collapse sooner rather then later no matter how hard the call for reform is they just ignore it and carry on. There will be more votes and I think more will vote to leave how many will it take for them to listen or is it hands over ears time regardless of how nations are feeling

Let's not pretend that good news is constantly brewing within the EU things might have been focusing on the farce in the uk but eventually the bad news will start coming from the EU again.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Remainers and the government still do not understand the Leave vote, they've tried Leave is racist, they've tried Leave is uneducated, an they've tried Leavers regret it.

They are still quoting the FTSE 100/250, they're saying house prices will fall, they're saying the banks will leave the UK, they're saying Pensions will fall.

But when you're talking to millions of white, black, Asian , straight , gay, lesbian, trans people who don't have shares, only dream of being able to pay into a pension and have no hope of ever buying their home, an who have only ever seen thelocal branch of their bank close forget having job opportunitys with them you need to think a little bit more.

You're telling people with nothing they face having nothing, Remainers wake up... I understand you no longer understand the UK, but unfortunately you're going to have to find away of understanding it.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35847059)

Still don't see it happening. They'll concede other things before the City imo. First of all there is the obvious economic downside but even aside from that it's not as if these corporations are powerless, they'll throw their weight around to get what they want.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by RizzyKing (Post 35847060)

The bad news hasn't stopped, we're just exceptionally self-absorbed for the foreseeable future here.

We'll see just how much trouble our vote causes in the longer term. Obviously there will be a rush of calls from those empowered by the UK's decision. The Netherlands at least has already put the issue to bed.

---------- Post added at 22:52 ---------- Previous post was at 22:51 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35847062)

They'll get what they want. They'll be offered incentives to leave the UK and move to the passported area.