Coronavirus (OLD)
 

BREAKING: Coronavirus cases in the UK double due to ‘super spreader’ bringing 8 confirmed Coronavirus victims in Britain.

• The global number of deaths is 910, with 908 in China, including an American and a Japanese person
• A total of 97 people died of coronavirus in China on Sunday - the largest in a single day since the outbreak was detected in mid-December, denting optimism the death control measures are fighting the outbreak
• On Sunday, 3,062 new virus cases were reported in China - a 15% increase from the day before, bringing the total to 40,171, including 27 foreigners
• More than 360 cases have been confirmed outside mainland China, with two deaths
• The total number of deaths exceeds the 774 killed by the 2002/3 SARS outbreak
• Confirmed cases of the new virus vastly exceed the 8,098 infected by SARS
  
  Source: Sky News: https://news.sky.com/story/uk-corona...itive-11930618
  

Re: Coronavirus
 

I have noticed that the price of face masks has gone from dirt cheap to quite expensive, i'm not saying they will do any good just noticing the price.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Absolute, complete overkill and sensationalism by the media on this.

The mortality rate is approximately 2%

Interesting dashboard here from John Hopkins

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

Re: Coronavirus
 

That's around 140,000,000 globally if it gets out of hand.

Re: Coronavirus
 

The flu has caused approx. 10,000 deaths in the US alone this ‘season’

Let’s have some perspective

Re: Coronavirus
 

In the latest flu season, about 0.05% of people who caught the flu have died from the virus - whilst it's early days yet, as we don't know how virulent this strain of coronavirus is, at this time, the mortality rate is 2%, or 40 times the fatality rate.

Re: Coronavirus
 

We had this with the bird flu if l rightly remember.

Re: Coronavirus
 

And whilst I don't have the exact figures to hand, I believe it to be something like 95% of deaths are not directly attributable to this strain of virus, it's due to complications of pre existing medical conditions.

If that 95% is correct that would lead to a 45 deaths from 40,573 confirmed cases that would give a mortality rate of 0.110% not lmuch different to nfluenza

---------- Post added at 12:43 ---------- Previous post was at 12:38 ----------

See also, Swine Flu

Re: Coronavirus
 

Even if the fatalities are not that high:

1) the NHS is incredibly over burdened at the moment
2) epidemics cause economic damage from mass sick leave
3) if the virus secures are permanent circulation this will be a yearly occurrence

Re: Coronavirus
 

I heard that the mortality rate was actually just 1%.

It’s dangerous for elderly, very young and those with respiratory complications.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I know of 2 GP surgeries that have been shut (one due to the virus being detected in a staff member, one as a precaution). This is going to cause hardship.

Re: Coronavirus
 

We have this locally

Grimsby Chinese takeaway closed after owners put themselves in quarantine to ease coronavirus fears after trip to China

https://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/n...-after-3828255

Re: Coronavirus
 

Wow, fourteen days of business lost due to media hysteria....

---------- Post added at 14:33 ---------- Previous post was at 14:28 ----------

If my figures are correct (which reminds me to find them and post) it's less than that.


and too your second line. As is any respiratory condition. such as, the flu

(not trying to teach you to suck eggs, just emphasis)

---------- Post added at 14:35 ---------- Previous post was at 14:33 ----------

1) Yes, and a great deal of the burden is caused by those who misuse it. Those for example that go to their GP's for a cold when all they need to do is follow sensible guidance.
2) Fair point
3) Big IF

Re: Coronavirus
 

This was an early projection from very incomplete data. The doctor who tried to warn the Chinese people about it has allegedly died from it and he was quite young.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Brighton have closed a GP surgery.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51447761

Re: Coronavirus
 

It's a tough tightrope public health bodies have to walk on with things like this...

Being 'cautiously aware' and monitoring the situation is probably where we should be now but politically, it can look like nothing much is being done. Overdoing it however can have the opposite effect creating panic. If we do not do enough to prevent the spread of a nasty bug or incite panic, both can have the same effect, people will not be at work due to either the real or perceived threat.

If coronavirus does have a 2% mortality rate, that's up there with spanish flu and something to be worried about if transmissibility is around the same as flu. That still isn't clear at the moment.

Time to review the Governments Pandemic Flu Strategy - https://assets.publishing.service.go.../dh_131040.pdf and so a search and replace for influenza and coronavirus. Also time to review business continuity plans I think (I am lucky, I am a home worker)

Re: Coronavirus
 

According to a virologist statement I have been reading:

"Again, being infected does not mean you will die. Probably not, especially if you are not 40+ man with underlying medical condition!"

I hope she means "person" and that this is not a sexist virus. ;););)

Re: Coronavirus
 

The fact we're all going to die from this really puts the months arguing about Brexit into perspective doesn't it?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Maybe people might wash their hands now? Apparently a third don't after visiting the loo. Or the numpties that proudly come coughing and sneezing over everyone in an open plan office get sacked? Simple precautions but we seem to struggle with the basics of hygiene.

Re: Coronavirus
 

If you're worried about cleanliness read this.
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/lat...bergs-21451197

Re: Coronavirus
 

Wouldn't it be more accurate to correlate the deaths to the number of confirmed victims when they became ill rather than when they died otherwise you're skewing the figures massively. You've also got to factor in that China might not be admitting how bad it is, I've heard a nasty story about people over 60 not being treated and therefore not being included in the figures

Re: Coronavirus
 

Let's listen to the WHO please and use caution but not become like Chicken Little running around shouting the sky is falling.

Re: Coronavirus
 

WHO map of cases

http://who.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsd...f977d77e4a0667

Re: Coronavirus
 

BREAKING: Coronavirus Total Deaths surpasses 1,000 & UK Prison inmate currently being tested for Coronavirus, recently transferred from Thailand.

• On Tuesday, 109 people died in mainland China in one day, topping 100 for the first time and bringing the total to 1,016
• There were 2,478 new confirmed cases on the mainland, taking the total to 42,638
• Around the world 462 cases are confirmed in 27 countries, with a death in Hong Kong and one in the Philippines
• As of 2pm on Tuesday, the UK had tested 1,358 people - 244 more than Monday - with eight positive
• The Westerdam cruise ship, where no coronavirus cases have been confirmed, was turned away from Thailand on Tuesday after the Philippines and Japan refused to let it dock
• Bank of England governor Mark Carney said that the virus was "from an economic perspective, already bigger than SARS"
• Postal operators in the US, China and elsewhere have said the suspension of flights is having a major impact on global flows of letters and parcels
  
  https://news.sky.com/story/two-uk-pr...virus-11931564

Re: Coronavirus
 

I think the rational and sensible thing to do now is panic. I for one have purchased a year's worth of anti-bacterial hand gel and will start eating a bottle a day of it.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Perhaps a good time to put off ordering stuff from China on Ebay? Delivery times might be a little erratic.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Perhaps this will add a bit of perspective.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/1300-p...ry?id=67754182

Re: Coronavirus
 

Didn't realise the the problem was done and dusted and that there are not going to be any more cases.:rolleyes:
Link

0.6-0.8% of the World population isn't a small number. That's only around 46 million deaths.:shocked:

Re: Coronavirus
 

WHO called this virus public enemy number one earlier, bloody fearmongers...

Possibly the sanist most logical post I've ever read, the only thing that bothers me is one bottle a day won't be enough to save you

---------- Post added at 03:17 ---------- Previous post was at 03:14 ----------

I hope I'm wrong but I fear in two weeks the death toll will have shot up, a lot

Re: Coronavirus
 

Also rather meaningless since the entire world population isnt going to catch it.

JFYI, around 150,000 of the worlds population dies every day anyway, regardless of this virus.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Don’t forget to keep the bottles and transform them into a hazmat suit.

Re: Coronavirus
 

:Yikes: Plague's in town. The hospital is less than a mile away from us.

Re: Coronavirus
 

You want to watch out for the red cross on the door for that.

Re: Coronavirus
 

That's based upon 60% catching it and 1% of those dying. That is what the experts are saying.

Re: Coronavirus
 

We all know what we think of experts.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Yeah, bleeding scientists, they and their evidence know nothing. Bloke down the pub knows better. They'll be telling us the climate is changing next.... Its all political correctness gone mad I should think.

Re: Coronavirus
 

First case of coronavirus confirmed in London


https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/12...tive-china-who

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Some depressing science stuff I've put in spoiler.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Coronavirus bombshell: ‘REAL cause’ of outbreak claim - Chinese scientists break cover

CORONAVIRUS spread from a science laboratory in Wuhan and not a ‘wet market', a group of Chinese scientists have sensationally claimed.


https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...rket-bioweapon


“We noted two laboratories conducting research on bat coronavirus in Wuhan, one of which was only 280 metres from the seafood market.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Wash your hands all you like. The virus can enter by the eyes and be picked up from your own clothes.

So goggles, mask and naked then rubbing the gel all over? ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

the DIY facemasks are useful as a chocolate teapot.

Plus we are quite safe in the UK.

The biggest problem is they report the deaths, but not the people who have fully recovered.

I think I hear on the radio that only 0.0002% have actually died.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Nope. the numbers from Friday

0.0002% equates to 10% of one person dead.

Re: Coronavirus
 

There's some very dodgy maths going on in this thread...

Re: Coronavirus
 

Using those figures ;

If you ignore the "suspected" cases then The fatality rate is 2.2%.
The infection rate (using a world population of 7.7 Billion) is 0.0000087%.
If you include the suspected, the fatality rate is 2.0%, the infection rate is still only 0.00001%.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Fatality rates are calculated based on those who have died having caught the disease, not on the general population.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Not really sure what your point is :confused:
The fatality rates above are calculated as you just said.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Cruise holidays seem to be advertising everywhere atm. I think they must have some 'availability'.

Re: Coronavirus
 

OK, now is the time to prepare.

Stop unnecessary travel
Make sure you have enough tinned food and medicine for 2 weeks, remember tin opener.
You probably won't be able to get a decent facemask. I've been trying for weeks. Looks like they don't help much anyway.
If your water supply is suspect make sure you have extra water.

If you suspect you have the virus don't go to the hospital, call the NHS number.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Not wishing to downplay things, but the media are really going a little hysterical on this one.

In perspective:
SARS virus . . 4 people in the UK were infected, no deaths.
Bird Flu . . no reported infections or deaths
Influenza (sometimes called winter flu) . . an average of 600 UK deaths per year

It's winter, people catch colds & flu, probably more likely if recently returning from warmer/dryer climates.

If you're in the group of 'vulnerable' people, you should already be taking precautions against flu anyway.

just saying like . . .

Re: Coronavirus
 

Slowly but surely, more direct impacts are being felt in this household...

The kids school sent out a letter this morning about COVID-19, hoping to reassure parents. Most of it looks like boilerplate text from Public Health England. One small wrinkle is that there was a ski trip to Italy last week but it was noted that the kids including my eldest were 200 miles away from the closest case.

I have warned my daughter that she might get some gip from other kids about her trip but she's cool with that. Funnily enough, it seems that the venn diagram of kids chatting most about COVID-19 and refuse to get vaccinations is pretty much a circle!

At work, our list of 'essential travel only' countries seem to be growing daily and our Business Continuity Management systems have opened up a sleepy eye...

Re: Coronavirus
 

But did those people who were 200 miles away, remain 200 miles away? People move around or have contact with others who move around. How else do you think something spreads?

Re: Coronavirus
 

I think the difference in the actions/reactions between this and flu is that flu (in all its variants) is a known disease, whilst we are still in the early days of finding out what COVID-19 does.

There would be outrage if COVID-19 suddenly started spreading faster, with more fatalities, because the authorities weren’t taking "appropriate measures" - they’re damned if they do, and damned if they don’t.

Re: Coronavirus
 

WARNING SIGNS Coronavirus – Iran’s deputy health minister looks sick while downplaying crisis just hours before HE tests positive


https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/110392...ests-positive/

Re: Coronavirus
 

Well, if any cases come up where she was, I would be more concerned but as it stands, I think we're good. 200 miles is the distance from my house in Hertfordshire to Liverpool and I wouldn't worry about cases there

Re: Coronavirus
 

Since the incubation seems to be assumed to be around 2 weeks, there is no guarantee of anything. Just think of the potential network of contacts that can be made in the space of a week. How do you think it "escaped" from China?
School holidays tend to slow up any spread of flu type diseases, therefore returning to school is when the process ramps up again.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I am sure the 24 hour coach trip back from Italy wouldn't have helped either!

I'm going on the advice from Public Health England which advised the risk as low (the school checked this one pretty sharpish!)

Re: Coronavirus
 

Link

Re: Coronavirus
 

This is the specific government advice;

Link

For my daughter, the advice is only to isolate if there are symptoms (cough, shortness of breath, fever, etc.) My work travel safety team are saying the same things and they are usually super paranoid

Re: Coronavirus
 

Problem is, people generally don’t “self isolate as you would with the flu” ... or a bad cold for that matter. Pressures from employers and years of advertising by the likes of Lemsip positively encourage people to carry on as normal unless their stage of illness is so bad they physically can’t get out of bed. And with covid, 4 out of 5 infections produce symptoms that are no worse than a middling cold and far less severe than flu. It is going to take a herculaenean effort to keep this thing from going full pandemic, especially with the BBC giving airtime to boomers marooned in long-haul destinations, insisting everybody is overreacting and demanding that the FCO gives them a free ride home.

Re: Coronavirus
 

A school in my town was closed as teacher had been in Italy over the 1/2 term break. the schools is now having a deep clean.

My newphew is due to go skiing with the school in Northern Italy on the 4th of April, the school has told my sister they'll change resort ot country.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I'm in Rome, a bit scary with loads of tourists kidding themselves in masks... Been hand washing a lot, far more effective. This area isn't really affected as yet. Hasn't spoilt my holiday, if anything the queues for the tourist hotspots have been less, so that's a bonus. The genie is out of the bottle with this so nowhere will be more safe than anywhere else. Pompeii is a must see if you ever get the chance, amazing and sad all at the same time.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Pompeii is definitely on my bucket list :tu:

Re: Coronavirus
 

If you want somewhere that's covered in ash and filth try Scunthorpe ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

reports from China, that 14% of people that have had the virus and got over it, have been reinfected.

which suggests it is mutating quickly

:Source Radio 4 news this morning:

Re: Coronavirus
 

You may have seen this doing the rounds on Social Media.

Regarding a book written by Dean R Koontz in 1981. Which details a Virius developed in Wuhan, China in 2020, that causes respiratory problems.............


Cue twilight zone music..............

Reminds of the story of the book about an unsinkable ship called the Titan, that strikes an iceberg on it's maiden voyage. Written years before the Titanic sunk.

Re: Coronavirus
 

https://bay.com.mt/coronavirus-in-nu...houldnt-panic/ :)

Re: Coronavirus
 

There are lies, damn lies, and statistics ....

Of course we shouldn’t be panicking and clearing supermarket shelves. But we should be taking the requested precautions to prevent the spread of an infectious virus for which there is neither vaccine nor cure. If it spreads unchecked, a mortality rate of just 2% would eventually kill more than 100 million people worldwide.

Infection and mortality is low so far precisely because of quarantine procedures. Without them, that article’s rather crass comparisons with absolute rates of cancer, diabetes and heart disease deaths would be looking like a very poor joke.

Although the funniest* part of that article is how it offers as reassurance the fact that most people who die of Covid are over 50. I’m guessing “89.7 Bay FM” mostly appeals to kids and millennials.

*Not really funny at all

Re: Coronavirus
 

Investors seem concerned. The Dow Jones has recorded its biggest points fall in history.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...pread-11944193

(As an aside, I hope Trump is no longer claiming any credit for movements in the Dow Jones! ;))

Re: Coronavirus
 

This does look like it could get pretty bad. The incubation period is so long we could see the numbers in Europe jump from the few to the thousands, tens of thousands, within a week or two. That's if it was lost control and unfortunately this outbreak in Italy seems like it hasn't been contained .

Reports of reinfection are even worse, it'll just keep reinfecting everyone, but those reports are unconfirmed I believe.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Interesting looks you get walking around with a common cold!

Re: Coronavirus
 

BREAKING: First Brit to die of Coronavirus from cruise ship.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...-dies-11945226

Re: Coronavirus
 

. . .and that's all it says, a British man has died.

No mention of age or underlying health issues (if any).

Re: Coronavirus
 

Now that the over 60s are being advised to avoid public transport and crowded areas what exactly are they supposed to do about getting to work/ shopping etc .

Re: Coronavirus
 

As we did during all previous disasters and wars and pestilence..Panic! OR we can just keep calm and carry on as normal.

Re: Coronavirus
 

BREAKING: 12 New Coronavirus patients confirmed in UK, largest rise in UK so far, bringing total amount of COVID-19 Cases in Britain to 35.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...in-uk-11947094

Re: Coronavirus
 

We can keep calm but we should make reasonable accommodations to the situation rather than carrying one as normal.

This does seem to be quite bad. It does seem like we're losing control of the spread of the virus. None of us have really lived though this situation and epidemiologists seem to be worrying that this is 'the one' they're always worried about coming. We do need to take it quite seriously.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Only mass transmissions would activate the Civil Contingencies Act where the government can shut down public transport , stop mass gatherings to protect the public and close schools but evidence suggests that those measures are not very effective at stopping the spread of coronavirus.

If the Civil Contingencies Act is activated then it would be for several months at least but at the moment this is unlikely to happen.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...virus-outbreak

Re: Coronavirus
 

The things that worry me are the instances of people getting it without any known contact with someone else like today's case in Essex. They're now pretty sure people can be carriers without having any symptoms and those that will get symptoms can take 2 weeks before they know. It's all a bit of a nightmare situation.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Yeah l heard about someone in Essex who has had no known contact and yet contacted it.

If it does become more widespread in the populace the potential disruption that could ensue will affect many of our everyday lives.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Saw this on facebook, look like it's from a medical book.

Re: Coronavirus
 

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/heal...es/coronavirus

Re: Coronavirus
 

Certainly we need to take it seriously but not to the point of panic.SENSIBLE precautions but not mass buying everything in sight. For example. Anyone got any hand sanitising gel? Because it's disappeared from the shelves at the 2 pharmacies and the local Co-op and Tesco Extra. Guess I need to buy up all the soap instead. ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

If you weren't worried before you should be now, the government's idea to combat this is to bring back a load of retired doctors and nurses, the very people most at risk in most cases. Wonder why all the hand sanitiser is sold out, only ones with alcohol in it will kill this virus.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Oh don't be saying things like that . . . all the shelves will be cleared of cheap vodka next :D

Re: Coronavirus
 

We were in Sainsbury's earlier today and a lot of the hand sanitiser and gels were sold out even though its only the alcohol ones that will kill the virus.

---------- Post added at 14:53 ---------- Previous post was at 14:46 ----------

Cheap vodka is that the stuff off the back of a lorry.;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

No Den, you're probably thinking of Liverpool shirts and Chanel No 5 :D

Re: Coronavirus
 

Oh l don't know l hear Man United shirts are doing a roaring trade..:D

Re: Coronavirus
 

Make your own... ;)

https://www.syracuse.com/health/2020...e-at-home.html

Re: Coronavirus
 

By some weird coincidence several people bought me bottles of Gin for Christmas. As my tipple of choice is coffee I have considered putting some of the gin into a small atomiser and creating a hand sanitiser which will double up as a throat spay.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Soap and water is better anyway.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...virus-covid-19

Washing hands will be a novelty for a lot of people...

Re: Coronavirus
 

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...7&d=1583170182

Re: Coronavirus
 

We wash our hands all the time as it takes 30 seconds to a minute at the most.

By the way l would say not a lot of people don't wash their hands as thats rather generalising yet again old chap as we all do it in our family for starters.

Re: Coronavirus
 

The thing about this hand washing is when and where it has to be done. Just doing it at home seems pointless. The idea is to prevent spreading once you've "picked up" the virus when outside. Even by the time you get home might be too late. You will have made contact with something and transferred it to yourself and/or others long before then.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Just think of the vast number of people who eat in fast food joints, baker's cafe's etc who eat with their hands without washing them first.

Unless such places make hand cleaning products readily available the consequences will be dire.

Fortunately we don't eat that sort of crap.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Frozen pizza is the way forward.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Good news, the owners of Corona Beer have lost £132million in sales, so there might be some deals going down at the supermarket :)
https://metro.co.uk/2020/02/27/maker...irus-12312964/

Re: Coronavirus
 

It’s lost profit, not lost sales, and it’s over their entire range, not just Corona beer. Though I’m certain the hack who wrote that report was desperately hoping to dig up a story of such gross public stupidity as thinking they could catch a disease from a product that just happened to have the same name ...

Re: Coronavirus
 

I don't know Chris, in China yes but in the US?

"Another case in point: 38% of American beer drinkers surveyed this week said they wouldn't buy Corona "under any circumstances" at the moment. It's worth noting that, among regular Corona drinkers, only 4% said they would now refrain — that raises questions about whether the virus is, in fact, affecting consumer attitudes toward the brand."

Link

Re: Coronavirus
 

Hmmm ... gross public stupidity ... USA ... :D