Re: Brexit (New).
 

So, long extension, Soft Brexit with possible confirmatory public vote ahead. GE also on the table now.

I saw Steve Brine on TV just now and now he is released from the shackles of Government, he is saying that TM should have reached out for a consensus in Parliament 2 years ago. Ouch ..

I have previously thought that JC is just a clueless clown but maybe I was wrong? He is nearer a GE now more than ever and when this happens, who do the disenfranchised centre ground voters choose? A Tory Party led by a Hard Brexiter like Johnson/Raab or Labour party promising a Soft brexit or No Brexit at all. I think that many will hold their nose and vote Labour.

The Tory brand is so damaged now: so many will not forgive them. This includes the hard core Leavers who will feel betrayed and the tribal Tory voters who cannot believe that their party have come to this.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Interesting that if every Tory MP had backed their own leader the vote would have passed.

I truly wish I understood what the ERG strategy is here. Do they still think No Deal is on?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

This from Heather Stewart.

And this from Sam Coates.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Will the EU27 go for a long extension, knowing that the Euro-elections will become an absolute pantomime? There has to be a serious risk of contagion across European electorates with Eurosceptic parties everywhere using the situation to accuse the EU and ruling elites of bad faith and collusion. Regards of what Parliament votes for (or continues to self-indulgently vote against) on Monday, is it now possible that the 27 heads of government will decide we are a boil to be lanced and just let the clock run down to a No Deal on 12 April?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

There are all sorts of rumours going around and where it ends no one knows.

1/ No Deal on 12 April
2/ A Long Extension which means there will be EU elections
3/ No Brexit
4/ General Election

Re: Brexit (New).
 

1. Possible, somewhat more likely than this morning.
2. Possible, but politically explosive. The elections would become a proxy GE and referendum rolled into one. It’s a pantomime nobody in HMG or the EU wants.
3. Vastly unlikely. The long term consequences would be severe. Try not to forget that Brexit was voted for by a majority of UK voters, and more people than have ever supported a single party or proposition in any vote ever held in the UK. That’s a lot of people to pyzz off.
4. Possible, but not before May steps down. She knows she’s screwed up, badly, and won’t face the electorate over it.

4. would also require 2.

Option 5 is that Parliament re-runs its indicative votes process on Monday, then HMG puts a binary choice before Parliament: choose either the deal or the most popular of the other options.

Almost all the movement has been among Tory hard liners, who might just be finally persuaded to take the deal over either retaining a customs union or holding another referendum. Very few Tories supported either of those options earlier this week. This afternoon’s results show that if May can hold on to all the support the deal has among Labour and independent MPs, she need only win over her own benches. The DUP’s votes would not be needed.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Yes l forgot that Parliament could re-run its indicative votes process on Monday but obviously will it be any different from last time when no played out on all the indicative votes.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

To be fair you've lasted longer than most, I've been sick to the back teeth of it for about a year now, plus of course all the time the country is going further down the toilet as our "leaders" suffer complete brexit paralysis, sod all the people getting stabbed, the nhs, housing crisis, social care crisis, crumbling infrastructure, etc etc etc it's all about poxy brexit, we couldn't even have a proper budget

Only a mini, go on treat yourself, go full blown :rant:

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I believe that is the only way Brexit, as envisaged by the vast majority at the time of the referendum, could be delivered.

A rogue member of the 27 veto-ing any extension.

It's just the matter of a £40 billion or whatever, hole in the accounts that will ensure this sorry mess continues.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Faisal Islam
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Minister tells me of a meeting of ministers with the PM in Downing St now following the third defeat of her Withdrawal Agreement... not about standing down but significant, nonetheless.


Nicholas Watt
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Nigel Dodds tells me the UK should stay in the EU if that was only way to preserve NI’s place in UK. ‘I would stay in the European Union and remain rather than risk Northern Ireland’s position. That’s how strongly I feel about the union.’

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Faisal Islam on Sky News.
‏

Re: Brexit (New).
 

parliament wont allow that expect general election if that happens

Re: Brexit (New).
 

For the No Deal fans:

The European Union Thinks The UK Is Left With Two Choices After The Last 24 Hours Of Brexit Chaos

This was noted that in event of a no-deal exit, the EU will have three pre-conditions before starting trade talk:

When we arrive in the fabled uplands, they may not be sunlit after all?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Yes she should got right for the MP's gut and take us down the no deal route. I think at this stage enough talk and voting has been done and we need to leave with no deal seen as none of them can reach a deal.

As a 2nd option the EU should make the call.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

The most surprising thing about this for me was discovering that Buzzfeed does something other than listicles.

It isn't surprising that the EU's agenda post-No Deal would be to try to reconstruct as much of the WA as possible. That's fair enough and suits us also. There are things in the WA that are desirable for the UK.

What I think this most usefully highlights is the extent to which the final mode of our departure may be determined not by gutless British parliamentarians who won't enact the will of their constituents, but by 27 foreign heads of Government who have grown thoroughly sick of same.

So the question is, will they grant a further extension, or will they cash in? Will they allow us to remain as a festering sore in EU affairs for another 2-3 years or will they decide enough is enough and insist that 12 April is No Deal Day?